Dimitar Bechev is a Europe’s Futures Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. Julian Popov is Bulgaria’s former environment minister and a fellow at the European Climate Foundation.
Once again, the European Union’s enlargement process is hostage to an emotionally charged dispute that is, to outsiders, baffling.
On Tuesday, foreign ministers will decide whether or not to begin EU membership talks with North Macedonia. Given that the European Commission first judged the country fit to join back in 2009, this step is long overdue. Sadly, it looks likely to be delayed further.
Where Greece was once the most vocal opponent to starting talks — over a dispute over North Macedonia’s name, which was finally resolved last year — Bulgaria has now become the most problematic naysayer.
Sofia has revived old grievances, calling on its neighbor to acknowledge ethnic Macedonians’ historical and linguistic ties to Bulgaria — and threatening to veto the start of accession talks unless it does so, creating a likely stalemate.
The best-case scenario involves the two prime ministers, North Macedonia’s Zoran Zaev and Bulgaria’s Boyko Borissov, cutting some sort of a deal that would allow each to save face domestically while unblocking North Macedonia’s bid to become part of the EU.
The Bulgarian government’s bellicose tone, however, has dashed those hopes and made it increasingly likely the EU is headed for an impasse on the issue. It’s not too late, however, for Borissov and Zaev to turn things around.
The Bulgarian leader is aware of the potential pitfalls of playing the spoiler. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already sent him a pointed message — essentially, “you need to sort this out” — as he met with Zaev to co-chair a summit of the so-called Berlin Process for the Western Balkans in Sofia.
Both leaders have an inherent interest in overcoming the impasse and shifting the focus away from what they call their “shared history.” The chances of arriving at a single narrative about historical events and figures from the late 19th and early 20th century are, as the emotional dispute has shown, slim.
That’s why it is high time for both sides roll up their sleeves and look toward the future rather than the controversy-ridden past. If they were to busy themselves with the present, they would see there is a whole lot that could be done in the interest of citizens.
Breaking the deadlock now would present a rare opportunity to accelerate the integration, not just of North Macedonia, but of the entire Western Balkan region into the EU.
The EU is negotiating the final parts of its ambitious recovery package that, in combination the next long-term budget, will provide some €1.8 trillion in funding to EU members — a large part of which will be spent on the modernization of the EU economy and upgrading its infrastructure.
Cross-border infrastructure stands to benefit. The distance between Sofia and Skopje is mere 240 kilometers, but there is neither a high-speed road nor a railway connection. For all the talk of regional connectivity and integration, the border is a testament of what is wrong about the Balkans. (Anyone who has braved the hair-pin turns along the narrow road descending from the Deve Bair (Camel Hill) crossing would probably agree.)
Improving these links will boost trade and investment. The potential is out there: In 2019, Bulgaria was the third most important destination for Macedonian exports following Germany and Serbia. North Macedonia is among Bulgaria’s top 20 export markets, though Sofia usually runs a surplus.
The start of EU accession talks for North Macedonia will drive governance and regulatory reform and open new opportunities for Bulgarian investors, some of whom have complained about unfavorable treatment in the past. It will also encourage Macedonian entrepreneurs, many of whom already have business in Bulgaria.
Allowing talks to start now is also likely to be a boost for cooperation on energy policy and help both countries make use of relevant EU funds. The European Commission’s guidelines on the implementation of its green agenda in the Western Balkans offers good, constructive directions for cooperation between Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia and offers a path for deeper integration of North Macedonia into the European Green Deal.
Working together on the EU’s climate neutrality target for 2050 will create a solid basis for the development of clean energy infrastructure connecting the two countries. It will help them integrate their electricity markets, reduce emissions and hit other targets that could boost both economies.
If Sofia and Skopje can work together to modernize their economies — using a blend of the EU’s recovery fund, other EU funding instruments and their own national budgets — it would serve the reassure investors and make both countries more attractive for new industries. That, in turn, would accelerate economic transformation on both sides of the border and strengthen the region’s security, allowing them to move past their historical grievances and into the future.
None of this is to say it will be an easy process. Political calculations in both Sofia and Skopje, coupled with long-standing grudges awakened by Bulgarian arm-twisting, have already done significant harm. But there is a win-win option too, for those who want to see it. And that, in the end, is what the EU is really about.
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November 17, 2020 at 10:02AM
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Bulgaria’s standoff with North Macedonia is a lose-lose - POLITICO.eu
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