Nov. 1 (UPI) -- Just hours after becoming a tropical depression, Tropical Storm Eta formed in the Caribbean on Saturday night, and forecasters say there is good chance it will continue to strengthen into a hurricane before heading toward Central America early this week with the potential to unleash life-threatening weather conditions.
Eta became the 28th named storm of the season, which tied the historic 2005 season for most named tropical systems to ever form in one season.
Thus far, 2020 has yielded 11 hurricanes -- four shy of the record of 15 in one season, which is also held by the 2005 season.
In its 7 a.m. EST advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Eta was about 215 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 435 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border. The hurricane had sustained winds of 40 mph and was traveling west at 15 mph.
"Portions of Nicaragua and Honduras should be prepared for strong winds, torrential rainfall and a storm surge from Monday to Wednesday from Eta," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
"Risks to lives and property could be significant to severe in part of Central America, whether the system hits as a tropical storm or a hurricane," Miller said.
"It is not out of the question that Eta could strengthen rapidly as wind shear is forecast to remain relatively low and waters are sufficiently warm over the central and western Caribbean," Miller said.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds increase by 35 mph or greater in a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
There have been eight tropical systems that have undergone rapid strengthening this year: Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta. Delta strengthened from a depression into a Category 4 hurricane in just over 36 hours, which shattered the old Atlantic record for ramping up to that strength so quickly. Previously, the record was held by Keith from 2000, which strengthened from a depression to a Category 4 hurricane within 42 hours.
Northward movement of the system may be blocked through much of the week. However, atmospheric winds that aid in steering storm systems throughout the tropics are expected to become relatively weak by the end of the week, which leads to more unknowns in terms of the forecast. While there may only be a small probability of a northward turn, it is not completely out of the question right now. However, the northward movement may not occur until sometime next weekend or later. If this were to occur, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas and even Florida could come into play for potential tropical impacts.
Boating and beach interests in the islands of the central and western Caribbean should be prepared for building seas and surf as Eta tracks westward and intensifies.
During early this week, seas and surf will continue to build along the shorelines in the western Caribbean, and conditions are likely to deteriorate across Central America. Landfall is projected to occur in Nicaragua or near the Honduras-Nicaragua border early this week. By this point, forecasters say Eta could be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
"Eta is expected to slow down and stall out over Central America later in the week, bringing widespread, heavy downpours and damaging wind," AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Gawryla said. "Due to these impacts, this storm will be a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes."
The scale is based on a variety of diverse factors such as flooding rain, high winds and storm surge as well as the total damage and economic impact from the storm, rather than simply wind.
Because of the rugged and hilly terrain in part of the region, the potential for flash flooding and mudslides will exist where the heaviest rain pours down.
At this time, forecasters expect the core of the storm's heavy rain and strongest coastal winds to aim for Nicaragua and Honduras.
"An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches (750 mm) is possible in Nicaragua and Honduras, especially at higher elevations," Gawryla said.
Outer bands of the storm are likely to bring waves of heavy rainfall to other areas across Central America, as well as to Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba.
Forecasters expect the highest wind gusts and greatest risk for damage to occur at the point of landfall and in surrounding communities. Here, there can be an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 115 mph.
People in flood-prone areas in the region are being urged to take precautions ahead of the storm. In addition, power outages could be widespread and long-lasting if Eta strikes at hurricane strength as predicted.
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Central America on alert for strike from strengthening Eta - UPI News
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