- Iota rapidly intensified into a hurricane early Sunday morning.
- Iota will be the second major hurricane strike in C. America in two weeks.
- Potentially catastrophic flooding, storm surge and destructive winds are possible.
Hurricane Iota is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to strike Central America as a major hurricane with potentially catastrophic rainfall flooding, mudslides, storm surge and damaging winds.
Iota became the 30th storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season Friday afternoon, which is two more storms than the previous record for a season set in 2005. Just after midnight Sunday morning, Iota strengthened into the 13th hurricane of the season. Only 2005 (15) produced more hurricanes.
(MORE: How Many More Storms Could Form?)
Iota became the 10th storm of the 2020 season to meet the criterion for rapid intensification, an increase in its maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. This tied 1995 for the most such rapid intensifiers in any single season since 1979, according to Tomer Burg, an atmospheric science Ph.D. student at the University of Oklahoma.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where hurricane conditions are expected by later Monday.
Hurricane alerts have also been issued for Colombia's islands of Providencia and San Andres, which will experience hurricane conditions first, by Sunday evening.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for northern portions of Honduras and farther down the Nicaraguan Caribbean coast, where tropical storm conditions are likely late Monday into Tuesday.
This system is expected to be steered generally westward by clockwise flow around a mid-level high-pressures system that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic.
On this path, Iota should make landfall late Monday night or early Tuesday morning along the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras, potentially in the same area Hurricane Eta made its Category 4 landfall on November 3.
With plenty of deep, warm water, favorable upper-level winds and a lack of dry air, Iota is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane by or before landfall.
This would be the first time on record two major hurricanes - Category 3 or stronger - made landfall in Nicaragua in the same hurricane season, much less only two weeks apart. NOAA's hurricane database only documented seven such Category 3-plus landfalls in Nicaragua prior from the mid-19th century through 2019.
Current Storm Info and Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)Potentially Catastrophic Impacts Again
Rainfall Flooding
Once again, flooding rainfall is expected to be the biggest danger for Central America, including areas that were devastated by Eta's heavy rain earlier this month.
Eta's flooding impacts killed at least 120 in Central America and southern Mexico, according to the latest report from The Associated Press. Scores of people are still missing, the AP said. Honduras was one of the areas hardest hit by Eta's flooding and any additional rain could worsen conditions.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the following rainfall forecasts through Friday:
-Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala and southern Belize may pick up another 8 to 16 inches with isolated totals of 20 to 30 inches
-Costa Rica and Panama can expect 4 to 8 inches, with local totals up to 12 inches
-El Salvador and southern Nicaragua can expect 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals of up to 10 inches
-Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches with localized totals up to 12 inches
This rainfall would lead to dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding, river flooding and landslides.
Rainfall Potential
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )Storm Surge
A life-threatening, potentially catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels is expected north of where Iota makes landfall, along the northern coast of Nicaragua and coast of eastern Honduras.
Destructive, battering waves will ride atop the surge.
Winds
Potentially catastrophic winds of Category 3 or 4 intensity can be expected in the eyewall of Iota as it makes landfall late Monday night or early Tuesday morning in northeast Nicaragua or extreme eastern Honduras.
This will lead to severe structural damage, particularly to poorly-built structures, and widespread power outages in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras by Tuesday morning.
As mentioned earlier, hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within the hurricane-warned area in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Tropical storm conditions could move in as soon as Monday morning, making last minute preparations difficult.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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November 15, 2020 at 08:46PM
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