Tropical Storm Fred sweeps past Puerto Rico and could strike Florida this weekend - The Washington Post

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Conditions are improving on Puerto Rico as Fred, the sixth named tropical storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, progresses westward and lashes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. That’s just the start of a lengthy list of land masses that could be visited by Tropical Storm Fred, which recent data suggests could strengthen some before impacting Florida this weekend.

Tropical storm warnings are up in the eastern Dominican Republic, where strong winds and heavy rainfall could lead to a number of mudslides. In neighboring Haiti, it’s a tropical storm watch. The Turks and Caicos, southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba are also included.

Fred may bring turbulent conditions and a good deal of rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida late Friday into Saturday, but the storm probably won’t be that well-organized at that time.

Concern is growing in the Florida Panhandle, thanks to Fred’s opportunity to intensify as it encounters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. The potential exists for Fred to make landfall as a high-end tropical storm around early Monday. The National Hurricane Center is estimating 65 mph winds at landfall currently.

Freshwater flooding will be a bigger threat. “Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises,” noted the Hurricane Center.

Fred likely marks the start of an active period and a string of tropical cyclones tied to a batch of upward rising motion overspreading the Atlantic. For more than a month, meteorologists have been highlighting the second half of August into September as a time frame to closely monitor due to the overlap of several large-scale weather features favorable for brewing named storms.

Fred currently

Fred first earned its named on Monday night at 11 p.m. Eastern time after finally consolidating its spin around a coherent low-level center. It dumped a general 0.5 to 2 inches on Puerto Rico, with localized amounts likely approaching 4 inches. San Juan’s Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport picked up 0.66 inches.

Doppler radar revealed improving conditions across the U.S. territory as the last of Fred’s rain showers and squalls exited to the west through the Mona Passage.

The National Hurricane Center estimated 45 mph winds in the core of Fred. The system was moving briskly to the west-northwest at 16 mph.

On satellite imagery, Fred didn’t appear terribly well-organized Wednesday morning. Most convection, or downpour and thunderstorm activity, was displaced east and southeast of the center. It appeared some was trying to wrap northwest around the storm’s disheveled low-level center, but each effort was being met with varying degrees of success. Until thunderstorm activity is a bit more symmetric about the storm center, it will be tricky for Fred to achieve any meaningful intensification.

Infrared satellite imagery also depicted the lopsided Fred as having several thunderstorm clusters tracing spiral rain bands well north of the center. Some even stretched back to the U.S. Virgin Islands and arced in the direction of Turks and Caicos.

What to expect

If Fred remains a disheveled, minimal tropical storm with its thunderstorm activity askew, then the low level circulation may be disrupted as the storm treks through the high terrain of Hispaniola. The more robust southerly thunderstorm activity continues to tug the low level center south. That would induce weakening and, subsequently, reduce the odds of a more significant impact in Florida and the Southeast.

Fred could sidestep the Dominican Republic’s highest mountains, however, or form a new low-level center, as has been observed several times in the past couple of years with storms transiting the region. That would let Fred charge on unimpeded, but is progressively less likely.

The most likely scenario currently is more heavily weighed toward the former, weaker scenario. The Hurricane Center thinks Fred will weaken into a tropical depression as it traverses the island.

By Friday night and Saturday, Fred should be slowly regaining strength as it passes north of Cuba and approaches the Florida Straights. Gusty winds approaching tropical storm force could buffet the Keys and south Florida.

Even though the National Hurricane Center’s forecast takes a strengthening Fred offshore the west coast of Florida and northward in the Gulf, the east side of the storm will likely be the wet side, featuring very heavy rainfall. A general 3 to 5 inches can be expected during the day on Saturday in south Florida, with localized 6 to 8 inch totals. Similar amounts will be possible along the western Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday.

A few tornadoes and waterspouts are likely too across south Florida this weekend, with the risk even extending into the Miami-Dade to Fort Lauderdale corridor.

It’s unclear to what extent the warm Gulf of Mexico waters will rejuvenate Fred, but the Florida Panhandle should be keeping an eye out for a second landfall likely early next week. An increase in wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, could disrupt Fred’s circulation making it difficult to gain much strength, even as it passes over warm water favorable for intensification.

If Fred garners enough strength, strong to locally damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding will be possible. Fred’s remnant moisture may affect the Southeast and perhaps Mid-Atlantic toward the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, Fred has company. A second tropical wave over the open Atlantic has a 40 percent chance of development. And signs point to that being the first of many tropical waves to become mischievous over the month ahead.

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