As the storm exits the Caribbean, tropical storm warnings are up for most of western Cuba. Stateside, the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas are under a tropical storm warning, as is most of the west coast of Florida, except along the coast of the Panhandle.
A storm surge warning is also in effect for much of Florida’s west coast from Cape Coral through Tampa Bay into the Big Bend area.
Elsa will probably brush along the coast of southwest Florida on Tuesday before making landfall along the northern half of the peninsula on the gulf side Wednesday with peak winds of around 65 mph. Afterward, its journey will take it through Georgia and the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday.
On Monday evening at 8 p.m., Elsa was moving over western Cuba, centered 30 miles east of Havana, headed northwest at 13 mph. Due to interaction with land, its peak winds had dropped to 50 mph from 60 mph earlier Monday.
“Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification,” wrote the Hurricane Center.
Some Initial outer bands from Elsa lashed South Florida Monday afternoon, bringing downpours and wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Fort Lauderdale clocked a gust of 47 mph.
Florida impacts
Storm impacts may begin in the Florida Keys by late Monday evening, with wind gusts over 45 mph possible across the Lower Keys and exceeding 30 mph for the Upper Keys. There will probably be a steep rainfall gradient, or change with distance, too, with 3 to 7 inches of rain west and only a couple inches east. A minor 1- to 2-foot ocean surge is expected in coastal areas.
Then gusty winds will begin to sideswipe the Florida Gulf Coast early Tuesday, progressing from south to north during the day. Gusts topping 40 mph may only extend a few miles inland, though gusts of 50 mph are possible along the shoreline from the Caloosahatchee River to Tampa Bay.
“Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect,” the National Hurricane Center wrote.
Some weather models indicate isolated gusts to 60 mph are possible over the waters and beaches of Tampa Bay, especially if Elsa is able to take advantage of warm gulf waters to maintain strength. That could kick up a surge of 2 to 4 feet, according to modeling from the Hurricane Center.
Landfall near the Florida Big Bend is looking likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds quickly decaying inland. Most of north central Florida from the landfall location to Jacksonville will see gusts rarely exceeding 35 mph.
Rainfall will be more of a direct impact for many residents, with a strip of 3 to 6 inches looking likely in western Florida. Localized spots may approach 8 inches. Northern areas could see a broad 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals.
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
Elsa will sweep across southeast Georgia on Wednesday and Wednesday night and will eventually be shuttled up the southeast coast of the Carolinas on Wednesday night into Thursday, finally exiting northeast away from the Outer Banks on Friday.
“There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
A strip of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is likely along this path, primarily along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor through North Carolina. (A cold front to the west may help focus some of the tropical moisture ahead of Elsa and bring heavy rain to east central New York state on Friday, but that delicate overlap of weather features is a challenge to predict).
A few isolated tornadoes are possible in Florida, southeast Georgia and the Carolinas, too, a result of the change in wind speed and/or direction, with height that will be present in the atmosphere Elsa drags in.
Computer models on Monday introduced the possibility of Elsa taking more of an inland track through the Mid-Atlantic, which could mean a period of heavy rain and wind for southeast Virginia and the Delmarva on Thursday and Thursday night.
There is an outside chance Elsa’s rain shield may clip southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod on Friday as the system accelerates to the northeast, possibly intensifying a tad while sauntering over milder waters from the Gulf Stream.
Meanwhile, odds continue to favor another active hurricane season for the sixth year in a row. Signals point to a renewed uptick in tropical activity later in July and particularly into August.
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