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President Joe Biden, left, and former President Donald Trump, right.
Presidential elections can be put into three categories: stay the course, turn the page and transformation. In 2004, President George W. Bush was prosecuting the War on Terror and Americans choose to stay the course. In 2008, voters wanted a change in course and enough voters saw then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as transformational to elect him.
In 2012, President Obama simply ran a better campaign than Mitt Romney and voters decided to stay the course. In 2016, Donald Trump became the voice of middle-class angst and won a surprising victory that transformed the Republican Party. In 2020, voters wanted to lower the volume and heal the nation, so they turned the page on Trump and elected Joe Biden.
Now we have a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, but in an environment with very different trends that are driving the very different issues. Biden, in 2021, decided to be a transformational president and to mainly ignore healing the nation. This has cost him in the polls because other issues grew into crises and the perception was created that he was ignoring or mishandling them. As a result, parts of his 2020 coalition are fracturing.
Trump is trying to compare his record as president with Biden’s, but he is being hampered by court cases. Trump has an extremely loyal base of support. However, negative branding as an autocrat who is a threat to democracy is creating problems for him breaking through to independent and undecided Republican voters.
In a second term, with Democrats in control of the House and Senate, Biden would move to codify Roe v. Wade and to grant amnesty and a path to citizenship to migrants. Americans will see the “green agenda” accelerate as his imposed deadlines to end fossil fuels and eliminate many home appliances approach. Also, his economic policies would reflect the goals of the World Economic Forum as he pursues putting our economy on a post-capitalist footing and moving toward global governance. Not a recipe for unity.
A Trump victory would exacerbate fear and loathing among his enemies. They will challenge every executive action in court and parse every word he utters to define his motivations as rooted in racism, bigotry and malevolence. If they regained the House, Democrats would likely impeach him for the third time predicated on their belief that he is a threat to democracy and an aspiring dictator.
Protests, like those in 2020, will dominate the landscape, and the legacy media will frame the narrative as a fight to restore democracy. Blue state governors will disregard or refuse to enforce federal laws that they perceive will roll-back progress on core Democratic issues. This too is not a recipe for unity.
The 2024 election is a “lose-lose” for America. Biden’s agenda will continue to transform America without being granted permission by the voters. Trump will be blocked at every turn as he attempts to govern. American civilization, which is arguably in decline, will continue to have its foundations eroded and its institutions debased. Biden will likely use the force of government to force his opponents to comply with his plan to transform America. A second Trump presidency would demonstrate that our institutions and traditions do not function effectively when a sizable number of Americans refuse to accept an election result.
In 1945, President Harry Truman had to decide between two bad choices — drop atomic bombs on civilian populations or invade the Japanese mainland. In the context of his times, he made the right choice, albeit not a choice a president would be permitted to make today. In 2024, Americans are being asked to decide between two forms of division — one with policies that will divide and the other a person who personifies division in the minds of many.
The question for voters is whether we as a nation can afford to spend another four years divided.
Dennis M. Powell is a strategic management consultant at Massey Powell and author of the book: “Leading from the Top: Presidential Lessons in Issues Management.”
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