- Laura strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday morning in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
- Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico should allow Laura to strengthen significantly.
- Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane prior to landfall on the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts.
- Destructive storm surge and damaging winds will affect areas near where Laura makes landfall.
- Laura is also an inland flood risk as far north as Arkansas or southern Missouri.
- Isolated tornadoes are also expected from Laura.
Hurricane Laura will soon intensify over the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane prior to striking the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts late Wednesday or early Thursday. Life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds will batter the coast and a threat of flooding rain and strong winds will extend well inland.
Residents along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts should prepare now for a hurricane strike. Follow any evacuation orders issued by local or state officials.
Current Status
Laura has prompted hurricane and storm surge watches for the Gulf Coast. Hurricane warnings could be issued for parts of these areas later today.
A hurricane watch has been posted from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and also extends inland to include parts of the eastern Houston metro, Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, Lake Charles and Lafayette, Louisiana. This means tropical storm conditions (winds 40 mph or greater) are possible in these areas by Wednesday afternoon and hurricane conditions (winds greater than 74 mph) are possible by late Wednesday.
A storm surge watch has also been issued from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. This watch, meaning life-threatening inundation of water moving ashore over land is possible within the area in 48 hours or less. The watch includes Galveston Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for areas surrounding the hurricane watch, including downtown Houston, as depicted in the map below.
Current Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)Laura is centered more than 600 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana. It's tracking to the west-northwest at just over 15 mph.
Satellite imagery shows the storm is becoming increasingly organized as it moves into a favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico.
Current Satellite and Winds
U.S. Hurricane Threat
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows Laura will continue to track west-northwest through early Wednesday before turning more to the northwest.
It's possible Laura could undergo a period of rapid intensification according to the NHC. That means it could have a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
(IN DEPTH: Why Laura Could Join List of Recent Gulf Hurricanes That Rapidly Intensified)
Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - prior to making landfall somewhere along the southwest Louisiana or upper Texas coasts Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in these areas by Wednesday.
Current Information
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)There may still be subtle, yet important changes to the track and intensity forecast over the next day or so.
For instance, any westward shift of the track could increase the threat of Laura's strongest winds, storm surge and rain in the Houston-Galveston metro area. As a result, residents in these areas should prepare for a potential hurricane strike.
"Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 hours is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph," the NHC said early Tuesday morning.
The bottom line is that Laura is likely to bring storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to parts of Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts beginning Wednesday. Keep in mind that a hurricane isn't just a point. Impacts will extend far from where the center eventually moves inland.
(MORE: Why the Projected Path For Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Doesn't Always Tell the Full Story)
Laura Forecast Timing and Key Points
Storm Surge Threat
The highest potential surge is expected along and to the immediate east of the center of Laura as it moves ashore Wednesday night or early Thursday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, that could lead to inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay, if it occurs at high tide.
See the map below for other storm surge peak inundation forecasts from the NHC.
Follow the advice of local and state officials if you are ordered to evacuate an area prone to storm surge flooding.
Storm Surge Forecast
(From the NHC, this forecast shows potential peak inundation in feet of normally dry ground if the storm surge occurs at high tide. )Larger swells generated by Laura could begin to arrive along the northern Gulf Coast as soon as later Tuesday and will continue to increase and spread west. These will likely be accompanied by dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding, particularly at high tide, which is generally each morning.
Wind
Tropical storm conditions are possible along parts of the western Gulf Coast by Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday.
Areas that see the strongest winds on the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts could have widespread power outages, downed trees and structural damage. The potential for tree damage and power outages could affect areas farther inland along the path of Laura across eastern Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.
The potential for wind damage in the Houston metro area will once again depend on the exact track of Laura. A farther west track would increase the risk of damaging winds in Houston.
Probability of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
(The contours above show the chance of tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph), according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.)Heavy Rain Threat
Laura will also spread rain and wind impacts far inland through parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley late this week.
The NHC forecast indicates that 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 12 inches, is possible from portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast to the lower Mississippi Valley during the second half of this week, with the potential for flash flooding to extend well inland.
Forecast Rainfall Through Friday
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. Some of this rain may be associated with Marco or its remnant.)Tornadoes
Landfalling hurricanes sometimes produce tornadoes to the east of where the storm's center tracks.
The area with the greatest chance of seeing a few tornadoes from Laura on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night is from parts of Louisiana into southwest Mississippi.
Portions of Louisiana, western Mississippi and Arkansas could see a few tornadoes on Thursday.
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms (tornado potential in this case), according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day. )
Laura's History
Tropical Depression Thirteen formed in the Atlantic last Wednesday night and strengthened into Tropical Storm Laura on Friday morning.
Laura is the earliest Atlantic 'L' named storm on record. The previous record was Luis on Aug. 29, 1995, according to Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University.
Laura brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later Friday through Saturday.
Southern parts of Puerto Rico picked up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall.
Winds gusted up to 75 mph at Salinas, along Puerto Rico's southern coast.
Portions of the Dominican Republic picked up nearly a foot of rain from Laura over the weekend, which triggered serious flash flooding in some areas.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Laura Turned Deadly in the Dominican Republic, Haiti)
Sustained winds of 60 mph with a gust over 70 mph was measured in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Sunday evening.
Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in western Cuba around 8:00 p.m. Monday with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
A wind gust of 69 mph was measured in Key West, Florida, Monday afternoon as a line of showers associated with Laura moved through.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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