While California is likely to lose at least one of its 53 congressional seats when the 2020 census is complete, the Bay Area probably won’t take the hit.
“The Bay Area and Riverside County are the two fastest-growing areas in the state,” said Doug Johnson, president of National Demographics, a redistricting consulting firm. “Any time there is change, there are a lot of ripples, but the Bay Area is doing well to hold its seats.”
But someone has to lose in this once-a-decade political reshuffling, and it looks like it will be an as-yet-unknown Los Angeles-area member who will lose out when California surrenders at least one of its House seats to another state.
“It’s most likely to be an urban district in Los Angeles County” that disappears, said Tony Quinn, a former GOP redistricting consultant and senior editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which tracks state political races and activity. Southern California population growth “is away from the coast because it’s too expensive,” he said.
Redrawing California’s congressional boundaries to account for the impending loss will be a first for the state, which has never seen its congressional delegation shrink. After the 1930 census, California had 20 seats in the 435-member Congress. The state’s total grew to 23 after 1940 and kept on increasing every 10 years.
But the delegation grew by only a single member after the 2000 census and barely held on to its 53 seats after 2010. That’s not likely to happen again.
“It would be miraculous if we don’t lose one seat,” Johnson said. “We’re about 50-50 to lose two.”
The culprit is the state’s slowing population growth. The state’s population grew from 37.3 million in 2010 to an estimated 39.5 million in 2019, a 5.5% increase. But that’s well below the 10% growth from 2001 to 2010 and the 13.6% increase in the decade before that.
“Population growth is slowing down,” said Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. “We’re seeing more out-migration to the rest of the country, which has been going on for quite a while. But the real change is that international migration has slowed to a trickle.”
According to census data compiled by CalMatters, almost 22 million of the state’s residents were born in California. But about 4.2 million were born in Mexico, with China/Taiwan, the Philippines and India/Pakistan making up the rest of the top five birthplaces, followed by New York state, Vietnam and Texas. In 2018, more than a quarter of the state’s population was foreign-born.
But emigration from Mexico, both legal and illegal, began falling during the 2008 recession and continued to drop as Mexico’s economy improved and President Trump tightened immigration rules. That meant fewer people moving into the heavily Latino parts of Los Angeles and its surrounding communities.
That’s likely to cost Southern California when the congressional lines are redrawn.
Districts held by Los Angeles County Democratic Reps. Judy Chu of Monterey Park, Grace Napolitano of Norwalk, Linda Sánchez of Whittier and Lucille Roybal-Allard of Los Angeles are in the most danger, Johnson wrote in a report for Claremont McKenna College’s Rose Institute of State and Local Government, where he is a research affiliate.
Johnson warned that California could lose a second congressional seat if the census fails to reach “hard to count” communities, such as its estimated 2 million-plus undocumented residents, homeless people, renters and young people.
“Arizona and Minnesota are the most likely states to grab that second California seat,” based on current population estimates, Johnson said. If the state loses two seats, “one is likely to come from the Orange County/San Diego area or possibly the Central Valley.”
But while the Bay Area districts might be safe, they could still be changed. If one or possibly two seats disappear after the census, the remaining districts will have to expand to cover the state, with each picking up more voters.
“Bay Area districts could find themselves expanding east,” where the population is growing, Johnson said.
That could mean that Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney of Stockton could finally lose the last part of the Bay Area in his district. When McNerney, a former Pleasanton resident, was first elected to Congress in 2008, his district included much of eastern Alameda County and a small part of Santa Clara County. But the redistricting after the 2010 census left him with only the Antioch area remaining from the Bay Area.
In the Bay Area, where Democrats dominate, any changes will be little more than shuffling the lines and moving the players, said Quinn of the California Target Book.
“It won’t have much political impact,” he said. “Most of (the members of Congress) will just have to get used to a new area.”
That happens every time district lines are redrawn. After the 2010 census, Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena, found himself representing Martinez, a long way from the Wine Country and the far reaches of Northern California in his previous district.
“He went down to Martinez, introduced himself and has never had a serious challenger,” Quinn said.
But elsewhere, the anticipated loss of a congressional seat might mean a major remake of the state’s political map after the nonpartisan California Redistricting Commission redraws district boundaries next year.
“If California kept the same number of seats, the commission might just adjust the current map,” Johnson said. “But if we’re losing seats, the commission can start from scratch.”
John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @jfwildermuth
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November 18, 2020 at 07:00PM
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California could lose a seat in Congress, but Bay Area looks to be safe - San Francisco Chronicle
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