Guys, I'm not sure how it happened, but we've done it: We've made it through the entire NFL regular season. Actually, Dwayne Haskins didn't technically make it through the entire season, but that's neither here nor there.
As long as the entire league doesn't come down with COVID-19 between now and Sunday, the NFL is going to have played all 256 games on the schedule this year. Between the murder hornets, the locusts and the squirrels who were trying to spread bubonic plague, I wasn't sure the NFL would be able to finish the season. After the Titans came down with COVID in October, I thought for sure the NFL was just going to shut things down and declare the Bengals as Super Bowl champs.
Not only did we make it to the end of the regular season, but with 2020 almost out the door, that means we've also all survived the craziest year in human history, which is actually much more impressive. My resolution for 2021 is to forget 2020 ever happened and never talk about it again.
Speaking of 2021, if your New Year's resolution is to listen to more podcasts featuring me, then you're definitely going to want to click here and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast.
From now until the Super Bowl, I'll be joining Pick Six host Will Brinson on the podcast multiple days per week to talk football and anything else we can think of. We even took some time this week to talk about our favorite picks for Week 17. The first thing you'll notice if you listen is that Brinson and I rarely agree on anything.
Before we get to this week's picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. The reason you should click over this week is because there's a tight race brewing for the title of best straight-up picker in 2020. Currently, I'm ONE GAME out of first place. I won the title last year and if I want to take home the crown for the second year in a row, I have to pass both Pete Prisco and Jamey Eisenberg this week. Prisco is notorious for choking in the clutch, so I'm not worried about him, but I am worried about Eisenberg, who is basically the Tom Brady of making picks. He's been around forever, he's consistently good, he's better looking than me and the only way to beat him is to outsmart him. Hopefully all of Jamey's picks are wrong this week.
Alright that's enough stalling, let's get to the picks, and just to warn you, we have a slightly different setup this week. Also, I'll be honest guys, Week 17 is definitely the hardest week of the year to pick games. I have no idea which teams will be benching their starters and I have no idea if bad teams have mentally checked out like the Texans defense did against the Bengals. The good news is that I have not mentally checked out and my plan is to go 16-0.
NFL Week 17 picks that will impact the AFC playoff race
Miami (10-5) at Buffalo (12-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Picking games in Week 17 is basically a drunken crapshoot and if you need proof, just look at this game. I have no idea if the Bills will be resting their starters, I have no idea which Dolphins quarterback will get more playing time and I have no idea if the Dolphins even know who the best quarterback on their roster is even though it's clearly Ryan Fitzpatrick. The only thing I know about this game is that it's being played in Buffalo in January. If you asked people in Florida to make a reverse bucket list of things they never want to do in their life, visiting Buffalo in January would be at the top.
Since 2017, the Dolphins are 1-10 in games where the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees and it's going to be well below 50 degrees on Sunday (It's expected to be about 35). If the Bills win, they would clinch the two-seed in the AFC, which is a big deal, because it would guarantee them a home game in the divisional round if they can win their wild-card round game. Over the past 40 years, the Bills are 9-1 in home playoff games, so I'm guessing they're going to be trying to get that extra home playoff game.
The pick: Bills 27-20 over Dolphins
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Baltimore (10-5) at Cincinnati (4-10-1)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
For the second time in three years, these two teams are meeting in Week 17 in a game the Ravens need to win to keep their playoffs hopes alive and I think we all remember what happened the last time the Ravens needed a Week 17 win against the Bengals (and just in case you don't, I'll go ahead and give you a refresher).
That was the Bengals knocking the Ravens out of the 2017 playoffs and putting the Bills in. The 2017 Bengals were a monstrous underdog -- the Ravens were favored by eight -- but they still managed to pull off the win. This week, the Bengals are also a monstrous underdog, so the planets could be aligning for another upset (I mean, the planets did seriously just align, so I'm not ruling out this possibility). The Bengals are playing their best football of the season on defense and actually look competent on offense, which could be an issue for Baltimore. Although I'm an admitted Bengals homer, I'm not going to pick them to win here, but I do think it will be a lot closer than people think.
The pick: Ravens 30-23 over Bengals
Pittsburgh (12-3) at Cleveland (10-5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
As someone who was raised in Ohio, I know that if there's one team that almost never wins a game when they absolutely need it the most, it's the Browns. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but the Browns literally have the worst luck of any team in the NFL ever and the most Browns thing ever would be to close the season needing just one win to make the playoffs, but then not making it because you lost to the Jets and the Steelers backups. I have no idea if the Steelers backups are actually going to play, but I'm assuming they will because I think Mike Tomlin will be resting his starters due to the fact that the Steelers never really had a bye this season.
The Steelers lost their Week 8 bye due to the Titans' COVID situation and then they lost their 10-day break that they were supposed to get after their Thanksgiving game against Baltimore due to the Ravens' COVID situation. Could the Browns choke here? Absolutely. However, I had this weird dream last night that they won this game and then got stuck playing the Steelers again next week in the wild-card round and that's the one they end up choking away.
The pick: Browns 23-20 over Steelers
Tennessee (10-5) at Houston (4-11)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
When you give up 37 points to the Bengals, that means your defense has definitely already mentally checked out on the season and that's what the Texans did in Week 16. The Texans were so bad on Sunday that J.J. Watt went on a five minute rant where he basically accused half the defense of quitting. The upside for the Texans is that I'm pretty sure that Deshaun Watson hasn't yet quit on the season, which means Houston might be able to make this game interesting. That being said, there is a chance that Watson doesn't play due to an arm injury and if that happens, then I'm picking the Titans by two touchdowns.
The pick: Titans 34-31 over Texans (if Watson plays)
The pick: Titans 34-17 over Texans (If Watson doesn't play)
Jacksonville (1-14) at Indianapolis (10-5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I know this seems like an obvious spot to pick the Colts, but let me just remind you of three things. First, I don't care that the Jaguars are 1-14 on the season because they're 1-0 against the Colts, so they're going to have some confidence going into this game. Also, the Jaguars don't have to tank anymore because they've already locked up the top pick in the draft, which means they can actually try to win this game. I'm not sure the Jags trying will look any different from them not trying, but who knows? Finally, the Jags are actually 7-3 in their past 10 games against the Colts.
If the Colts can blow a 24-7 third quarter lead by giving up 21 second half points to a Steelers team that hadn't even scored 20 TOTAL points in an entire game for four straight weeks, they can lose to anyone.
The pick: Colts 31-23 over Jaguars
NFL Week 17 picks that will impact the NFC playoff race
Dallas (6-9) at N.Y Giants (5-10)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
As the president of the Andy Dalton fan club and also as one of only three people who stayed on the Cowboys bandwagon after they got thrashed by Washington on Thanksgiving, I think we all know who I'm going to pick here. After that 41-16 Week 12 loss to the Football Team, the Cowboys fell to 3-8 and their season looked to be over. At that point, I'm not sure if it's because I was drunk on Thanksgiving wine, but in the podcast we did after that game, I predicted that the Cowboys would rebound and win the division, and I got laughed at by Will Brinson, who literally said, "That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard anyone say."
Who's laughing now Brinson?
During the Cowboys' current three-game winning streak, Dalton has averaged 257 yards per game while throwing seven touchdowns to just one interception. Look, if this was a playoff game or a primetime game, I'd pick against Dalton, but this is his bread and butter: The 1 p.m. ET game. This is where the Carrot-Top Cannon shines.
The pick: Cowboys 20-17 over Giants
Green Bay (12-3) at Chicago (8-7)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
If you've seen one Bears-Packers game, you've seen them all. There's no one Aaron Rodgers loves to torment more than the Bears and if he can torment them during one of his average seasons, just imagine what he's going to do to them during a year where he's playing at an MVP-level. Since the start of the 2016 season, Rodgers has faced the Bears eight times and not only has he gone 7-1 in those games, but he's thrown 16 touchdown passes and just one interception. That includes earlier this year, when he tossed four touchdowns in a 41-25 win.
Although this game means a lot to Chicago, it's also an important one for Green Bay and that's because the Packers need to win if they want to guarantee themselves the top seed in the NFC and the first-round bye that comes with it.
The pick: Packers 27-24 over Bears
Arizona (8-7) at L.A. Rams (9-6)
4:25 p.m. (Fox)
I'm not sure if you guys heard the news, but there's a very real chance that both Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are going to miss this game. Goff is definitely going to be out after suffering a broken thumb in Week 16 while Murray is likely going to be questionable after suffering a lower-leg injury.
The crazy thing about these two injuries is that I cover football for a living and until five minutes ago, I couldn't name the backup quarterback for either team. Even looking up their names didn't help because John Wolford and Chris Streveler totally sound like fake names that I would have given out during a drunken bender in Vegas. I mean, I just gave you the names and you might not even know which team each guy plays for (Wolford is the Rams backup while Streveler is the Cardinals backup).
The last time Wolford was on the field came last spring when he was with the Arizona Hotshots in the Alliance of American Football. As for Streveler, the last time he got some serious playing time came last year when he led the Winnipeg to the Grey Cup in the CFL.
This is Streveler's Wikipedia photo, which is him celebrating his Grey Cup win.
Part of me wants to pick the Cardinals to win just because of Streveler's Wikipedia photo. However, as we all know, I don't pick games based on Wikipedia photos. At least not anymore. I'm going to take the Rams here and that's mainly because Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. If this is a backup quarterback game, I'm going with the better coach and McVay is 7-0 all-time against Arizona, including 3-0 against Kliff Kingsbury.
The pick: Rams 19-16 over Cardinals
Washington (6-9) at Philadelphia (4-10-1)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
If I've learned one thing over the past week, it's that if you're a starting quarterback in the NFL, you should never hang out with strippers while not wearing a mask during a global pandemic. Dwayne Haskins did that last week and now, he no longer has a job. An NFL quarterback getting cut less than 24 hours after he started a game for a team in a playoff race is absolutely unheard of, but that's exactly what happened to Haskins.
With no Haskins, that means Washington is either going to have to roll with Taylor Heinicke -- who wasn't even IN THE NFL LAST YEAR and wasn't good enough to start in the XFL earlier this year -- or a hobbled Alex Smith, who is dealing with a calf strain. Smith is less than two years removed from undergoing 17 surgeries on his right leg, so I have to think that Washington isn't going to throw him out there unless he's feeling 100%. Smith has a calf strain in his left leg and apparently, doctors used some muscle from that leg to help repair his right leg. I think what I'm trying to say here is that it might be safer for all involved if Washington just goes without a quarterback.
As for the Eagles, Doug Pederson is on the hot seat and nothing would look better for him than to knock a division rival out of the playoffs in the final game of the NFL season. Although Washington's defensive front would probably sack Carson Wentz 19 times if he was still the starter, Jalen Hurts should give the Eagles a fighting chance.
As a card-carrying member of the Cowboys bandwagon, I am obligated to pick the Eagles here, so I'm picking the Eagles.
The pick: Eagles 22-19 over Washington
Lock of the Week: There's no lock this week, but the great "Lock of the Week" drought did end in Week 16 thanks to the Bears, so thank you Bears. The fruit basket is in the mail.
Final regular season "Lock of the Week" record: 14-4 straight up, 7-11 against the spread
NFL Week 17 picks: All the rest
Vikings 31-17 over Lions
Raiders 34-24 over Broncos
Jets 19-16 over Patriots
Buccaneers 24-17 over Falcons
Chargers 34-27 over Chiefs
Seahawks 19-16 over 49ers
Saints 31-24 over Panthers
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Panthers would go on the road and upset Washington and guess what happened? The Panthers went on the road and upset Washington. The Football team was a popular pick to win this game and I'm guessing that's because it was supposed to be a chance for Ron Rivera to get revenge on his old team. However, we all know my first rule of picking games and it's basically, "If the starting quarterback for one team is caught in a strip club and the team responds by fining him $40,000 and stripping him of his captaincy while also threatening to bench him, but then he gets to start anyway because the team doesn't have any other healthy quarterbacks, then you always pick the other team to win." In this case, the other team was the Panthers, so I picked them. That rule is now undefeated (1-0).
The sad part for Haskins is that his $40,000 in fine money could have gone a long way at the strip club.
Worst pick: I don't want to go into details, but last week I said the Packers would get run over by the human snow plow truck, Derrick Henry. As it turns out, the Packers did not get run over by the human snow plow truck. As a matter of fact, I would argue that the opposite happened. Apparently, I forgot about the fact that Titans have the worst defense in football and when you have the worst defense in football, you have no hope of stopping someone who's playing at an MVP-level and Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level.
Finally, if you're still reading, you might be wondering which teams I've done well picking this year and here's the answer:
Team I'm 14-1 picking this year (Straight up): Chiefs
Teams I'm 13-2 picking this year: Jaguars, Ravens
Longest winning streak: Jaguars (12 straight games correct)
Longest losing streak: Rams and 49ers (Three straight games incorrect)
Also, the NFC West is my new least favorite division, because I'm 6-9 picking three of the four teams in that division this season (Rams, 49ers, Cardinals). Those are the only three teams I'm 6-9 picking this year, making them my three worst teams. I hope the NFL does the right thing and disbands the NFC West for 2021.
I'll be back next week with playoff picks. See you guys in 2021!
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 15: 10-6
SU overall: 157-81-1
Against the spread in Week 15: 6-9-1
ATS overall: 109-123-7
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably calling Dwayne Haskins to see if he wants to go to the strip club.
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December 29, 2020 at 08:46PM
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NFL Week 17 picks: Cowboys earn improbable postseason berth, Bears lose to Packers but still make playoffs - CBS Sports
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