COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Michigan State coach Tom Izzo called Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann after the No. 2 Buckeyes lost to No. 15 Oral Roberts on Friday, because Izzo has been there. In fact, before Friday, he was the last coach to experience an NCAA Tournament loss as a No. 2 seed to a No. 15 seed, when the Spartans fell to Middle Tennessee in 2016.
Holtmann knows there’s one big difference -- Izzo had made seven trips to the Final Four with Michigan State when he dealt with an upset that large. Ohio State and Holtmann are in a different context. Holtmann made one Sweet Sixteen at Butler, where he had a 4-3 NCAA Tournament record, and he’s 2-3 in the tournament with Ohio State.
So what now? This was the ninth time a No. 2 seed lost to a No. 15 seed. Famously, and infamously, Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in 2018, and the next season, Virginia was back as a No. 1 seed and won the whole thing. After last year’s canceled tournament, Virginia was a No. 4 seed this year and lost in the first round again, this time to Ohio.
That’s quite a swing, and swing back, over the course of three tournaments for the lone one seed to fall. What happened next to the two seeds? It’s remarkably and evenly split. Four times a Hall of Fame coach absorbed the loss and it was a clearly a blip for the coach and the program: Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim, Arizona’s Lute Olson, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski and Izzo.
The other four times, the program slid after the upset. At the moment, Ohio State and Holtmann look like outliers in both groups. Holtmann isn’t yet a future Hall of Famer. But Ohio State is more established than three of the programs that hit a barricade after the loss as a No. 2. And I don’t think the Buckeyes are headed down the path of the fourth team, either. So I don’t think there’s anything we can draw from the history about what we should expect next from Ohio State. I don’t think a team quite like the Buckeyes have ever lost a game like this in the tournament before.
Let’s look back at the two categories of No. 2 vs. No. 15 upset losses.
Jim Boeheim (shown in 2011) went on to lots of success later in his career after suffering the first 2-15 loss in 1993.ASSOCIATED PRESS
Syracuse loses to Richmond 73-69, 1991
Boeheim was in his 13th NCAA Tournament and 15th season as the Syracuse coach when his team became the first to lose to a No. 15 seed. Boeheim has won nearly 1,000 games, and 12 years later Syracuse won the national tile. The Orange are in the Sweet Sixteen in this tournament as an 11 seed. So of course this was a blip. Syracuse was back in the tournament the next year as a No. 6 seed and beat No. 11 Princeton before losing to No. 3 UMass in OT. Three years later, the Orange were back in the Sweet Sixteen, and five years later, they were in the national title game.
Arizona loses to Santa Clara 64-61, 1993
Olson led the Wildcats to the Final Four the following season and the national title four years later. The forgettable tournament experience came in the midst of Olson leading Arizona into the NCAA Tournament for 23 straight seasons. He lost in the first round nine teams ... and reached the Sweet Sixteen 11 times.
Duke loses to Lehigh 75-70, 2012
It’s Duke. This was just the third time Krzyzewski lost a first-round game. Two years removed from a title, and coming off a Sweet Sixteen, the Blue Devils were dealt this blow by future NBA star C.J. McCollum. They rebounded with an Elite Eight trip the following year and three years later they won another title.
Middle Tennessee celebrated this win over Michigan State in a 2-15 matchup five years ago.
Michigan State loses to Middle Tennessee 90-81, 2016
The Spartans this season made their 23rd straight NCAA Tournament, so this loss five years ago didn’t derail them. Michigan State had made the Final Four in 2015, and they returned after this loss as a No. 9 seed the next year, winning one game. Three years after this loss, in the 2019 tournament, the Spartans once again made the Final Four.
In 23 tournament trips, Izzo has lost his first game six times, including this season. He’s made the Sweet Sixteen 14 times.
South Carolina loses to Coppin State 78-65, 1997
The Gamecocks fumbled away the highest seed in program history, and the next year, they were back again as a No. 3 seed ... and lost again. This first loss came in coach Eddie Folger’s fourth season, and he’d finish his eight-year South Carolina tenure with no NCAA Tournament wins, the two losses as a No. 2 and No. 3 seed. South Carolina hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1973 and didn’t win another one until Frank Martin, 20 years after this loss, led the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017 as a No. 7 seed.
Iowa State basketball coach Larry Eustachy (right) with his wife Stacy Eustachy (left) was forced to resign for off-court reasons in 2003, two years after losing a 2-15 game.AP
Iowa State loses to Hampton 58-57, 2001
Coach Larry Eustachy led the Cyclones to the Elite Eight the year before, but he never won another tournament game at Iowa State. After this loss, he was forced to resign two seasons later after being photographed at a college party. He didn’t win another NCAA Tournament game until 2012 at Southern Miss. The Cyclones didn’t get back on their feet until 11 years later when in 2012 coach Fred Hoiberg started a run of what would be six straight NCAA Tournament appearances for the school, including two Sweet Sixteens.
Missouri loses to Norfolk State 86-84, 2012
First-year coach Mike Haith led the Tigers to a 30-win season that ended with this huge upset. Missouri lost again in the first round the next year as a No. 9 seed. Haith’s third season was his last, and the wins from that year were later vacated for NCAA violations. Haith left to take the Tulsa job, and he remains 1-3 in the NCAA Tournament, his only win in 2008 at Miami.
As a program, Missouri still hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since this loss.
Florida Gulf Coast (blue) took down Georgetown in a 2-15 matchup eight years ago.AP
Georgetown loses to Florida Gulf Coast 78-68, 2013
This is the program closest to where Ohio State is right now -- a good solid program, but not obviously in the midst of a Hall of Fame run. John Thompson III, son of the legend who had built the Georgetown program into a national power, was in his ninth season leading the Hoyas when this loss occurred. In the first eight years, he’d led Georgetown to six NCAA Tournaments, making a Final Four, another Sweet Sixteen, and two other times winning his opening game. But the Hoyas had lost openers as a No. 3 seed in 2010 and as a No. 6 seed in 2011 before this loss as a No. 2 seed in 2013.
Georgetown missed the tournament the year after this loss, and over the final four seasons for Thompson III at Georgetown, he missed the tournament three times and made it as a No. 4 seed and won one game. He was fired after the 2017 season. The Hoyas ended a five-year NCAA drought by winning the Big East Tournament to earn an automatic bid this season, losing in the first round as a No. 12 seed.
The Hoyas were showing a history of upset losses by the time this came in 2013, and this well-known defeat at the hands of “Dunk City,” turned out to be the beginning of the end for this era of Georgetown basketball.
As Holtmann correctly pointed out after the loss to Oral Roberts, he’d never experienced a tournament upset like this. In his 11 previous NCAA Tournament games as a head coach, Holtmann had been 4-0 as the better seed and 2-5 as the worse seed. So this was new.
Next season will tell us something about what this loss was. More likely a blip. But maybe a barricade.
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