Rishi Sunak and 15 of his cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats in the upcoming general elections, revealed fresh polling data.
The exclusive seat-by-seat analysis has found that Senior Tory figures, including PM Rishi Sunak, are at risk of defeat at the election expected in 2024. (File photo)
By India Today Web Desk: Rishi Sunak and 15 of his cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats in a general election 'wipeout', revealed fresh polling data, reported The Independent.
The exclusive seat-by-seat analysis has found that senior Conservative Party (Tory) members, including PM Rishi Sunak, Deputy PM Dominic Raab, and Health Secretary Steve Barclay, are at risk of defeat at the election expected in 2024.
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The list includes Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Business Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Environment Secretary Therese Coffey, too, according to the Focaldata polling for Best for Britain.
Only five cabinet ministers, Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman, Michael Gove, Nadhim Zawawi and Kemi Badenoch, would be safe, the poll suggested.
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All other Tory MPs in the current cabinet are at risk of losing their seats to Labour, except Raab, who would lose to the Liberal Democrats in Esher and Walton, and Scottish secretary Alister Jack, on course for defeat by the SNP in Dumfries and Galloway.
New analysis shared with The Independent on 10 crucial "bellwether" seats, those who have voted consistently with the winning party in recent decades, shows that Labour is on course to take all 10.
“Sunak’s cabinet deserves nothing short of a wipeout,” said Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, a group campaigning for internationalist values and for closer ties with the EU.
“But wavering voters could throw them a lifeline, and so Keir Starmer must take nothing for granted and avoid alienating Labour support by drawing unnecessary red lines on Brexit.”
The high proportion of uncertain voters still gives the Tories a chance of making the election a close call, saidSmith. Despite the dire polling for Sunak’s party, analysis by Best for Britain has revealed that Labour’s mammoth lead over the Tories could be more fragile than previously thought.
The group’s Wavering Wall report found that the high proportion of wavering voters – those answering “don’t know” in surveys – typically lean heavily to the Conservative Party and could still back Sunak’s party at the next general election.
The multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) polls carried out by Focaldata show Labour is on course to win 517 seats at the next election. But the victory is cut to only 353 seats, a majority of fewer than 60, once the impact of the “don’t know” voters is factored in.
And the new seat-by-seat analysis shows that 12 of the 16 cabinet members on course for defeat at the general election – including Sunak, Raab, Cleverly and Barclay – would cling onto their seats once “don’t know” voters are taken into account.
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Only Wallace, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper and Welsh secretary David TC Davies are on course to lose their seats after the “don’t know” voters are factored in.
Sunak is struggling to revive Tory fortunes at the start of 2023, with most recent polls giving Labour leads of around 20 points. Polling experts said a slight poll bounce after Sunak took over from Liz Truss has now “flatlined”.
Earlier this week, Sunak tried to relaunch his premiership by offering five promises to turn around the economy, cut NHS waiting lists and “stop the small boats” by the election in 2024.
But the latest MRP poll findings raise questions about Sunak’s leadership ahead of his first real electoral test at the local elections in May. Some within the Tory party believe a drubbing could see a push for Boris Johnson to return.
A grassroots Tory group made up of Johnson’s allies is set to launch a “Momentum-style” campaign to hand members full power of the selection of candidates.
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The Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), run by Johnson’s donor Peter Cruddas, also wants a rule change so that any MP backed by only 15 per cent of their colleagues can run for the leadership.
ALSO READ | 'Meant a lot...': Rishi Sunak speaks of pride at being first Hindu PM of Britain
Chris Hopkins, director at Savanta, said Sunak had to get the Tories ahead of Labour on economic competence, saying it was the “key” to any chance of electoral success.
“He’s not really liked or disliked too dissimilarly to Keir Starmer, which also helps. While the ‘not Liz Truss’ bounce has expired, the real work for him starts now,” he told The Independent.
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January 08, 2023 at 04:18PM
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