As reported by Bloomberg, this overturning of a large majority has given Keir Starmer's party clear momentum as they prepare for an upcoming national vote anticipated next year.
Additionally, the Tories lost another important seat in southwest England to the Liberal Democrats, delivering a double blow that may cause concern for the prime minister. However, Sunak avoided a complete rout when his party unexpectedly retained ex-leader Boris Johnson's former seat in a closely contested result on the outskirts of London.
The Conservatives had downplayed their chances in the three special elections in very different parts of England on Thursday, arguing that even winning in one contest would represent a victory given governments are traditionally given a kicking in mid-term votes.
But the scale of the defeats will raise more questions about whether he can turn around his party’s slump in the polls, which began under Johnson and has barely recovered from Liz Truss’s disastrous seven-week premiership last fall, Bloomberg reported.
“The tide is still a long way out for the Conservatives and they still have an awful long way to go before they look as though they might have a chance of being able to retain power after the next general election," John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC.
In Selby and Ainsty, a rural constituency in North Yorkshire, Keir Mather secured 46% of the vote, marking a significant increase compared to Labour's 25% in the previous 2019 contest. The seat, which has been under Conservative control since its establishment in 2010, experienced a shift in voter support. Conservative candidate Claire Holmes came in second with 34% of the vote, experiencing a notable drop from the 60% support received in the last election.
The result is seismic for Starmer, who can show his party is using its double-digit lead in national surveys to overturn large Tory majorities as he tries to guide Labour back to power for the first time since 2010.
The Conservatives were defending a majority of 20,137 votes — the biggest margin Labour has overturned in a by-election, the party said on Friday.
“It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us — many for the first time," Starmer said after the Selby result was announced. “After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back."
Meanwhile, Sarah Dyke became Liberal Democrat MP for Somerton and Frome, securing a dramatic swing of 29 percentage points from the Tories that will be hailed by Ed Davey’s party as proof the Tories are vulnerable in their traditional stronghold across southern England.
That puts pressure on Sunak because it reinforces the view his Tories are being squeezed on multiple fronts. In her victory speech, Dyke said the result proved tactical voting can be used by progressive parties at elections to beat the Conservatives.
In an emailed statement, Davey said the people of Somerton and Frome had “spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government."
Rishi Sunak narrowly avoided a more disastrous outcome as the Conservative Party unexpectedly managed to retain Boris Johnson's former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in northwest London by a mere 495 votes following a recount.
Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell secured 45% of the vote, with a swing of 6.7 percentage points from the Conservatives to Labour—just shy of the 7.6-point swing required for the opposition party to claim the seat.
Labour's Keir Starmer's party attributed its inability to make significant progress in the district to local factors. The Tories transformed the election into an unofficial referendum on the contentious Ultra Low Emission Zone plan, led by Labour's London Mayor Sadiq Khan, which aims to charge vehicles in the area to combat pollution.
“We know that the Conservatives crashing the economy has hit working people hard, so it’s unsurprising that the ULEZ expansion was a concern for voters here in a by-election," a Labour spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
Boris Johnson first secured victory in Uxbridge in 2015 and retained the seat in 2019 with 53% of the vote, leading the Tories to a resounding national triumph. However, he stepped down as prime minister last year and resigned as an MP in June following a panel's finding that he had lied to Parliament about rule-breaking parties in Downing Street during the pandemic.
Additional elections are anticipated in two more Tory-held areas—Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth—raising the possibility of an unwelcome narrative lingering into the autumn for Rishi Sunak.
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Updated: 21 Jul 2023, 11:44 AM IST
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