Lost amid the excitement of the NFL’s return was the unfortunate reality of the physical dangers players face on the field — whether it be on gameday or in practice.
The Dallas Cowboys had to deal with a particularly heavy dose of reality Monday when Gerald McCoy, who was going to be one of their most valuable defensive linemen in 2020, ruptured his right quad tendon during an innocuous drill at practice — ending his year before the season even got here.
Now, despite McCoy’s high-level skill, losing him doesn’t destine the Cowboys’ 2020 season for failure, but it does remind everyone how fragile each team’s Super Bowl hopes are. One or two injuries to key players at key positions are enough to tank a team’s season.
The Cowboys’ 2017 season is a decent enough example. The Cowboys started the season 5-3, which was culminated in an impressive 28-17 victory over a playoff Kansas City Chiefs team, with hopes of a playoff run. The Cowboys offense appeared to be one of the better units in the NFL, as they scored at least 28 points in six straight games. However, Tyron Smith went down with an injury and was lost for the next two games, where the Cowboys pass protection and overall offense was a mess, as they failed to score in the double-digits in each contest. Once Smith returned, it took the offense a couple of weeks to get back in the groove, but it was already too late, as winning four of its last five games wasn’t enough to earn a playoff bid.
While we will never know for sure, it’s likely that the Cowboys would have made the playoffs had Smith never been lost due to injury, which goes to show just how fragile some team’s successes are.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the players the Cowboys can least afford to lose for an extended period of time due to injury.
Dak Prescott
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In previous years, Dak Prescott would be the obvious pick as someone the Cowboys can least afford to lose to injury — that’s what happens when the primary backup QB is Cooper Rush, who went undrafted and has yet to start a regular season game.
However, things are much different in 2020, as the Cowboys signed a legitimate starting-caliber QB, Andy Dalton, during free agency to backup Prescott. Dalton brings a ton of experience (137 games) to the Cowboys backup QB spot, which is why the Cowboys can be confident that Dalton can keep ship afloat if Prescott is forced to miss a couple weeks because of injury.
Anything more than that, however, and it becomes clear why the Cowboys can’t afford to lose Prescott for any extended amount of time. Even though Dalton is one of the 32 best QBs in the NFL — thus making him a starting-caliber QB — there’s still an incredibly large gap between him and Prescott as starting QBs.
Since Prescott entered the league in 2016, he’s outperformed Dalton in basically every single statistic - courtesy of Pro Football Reference - including record (Prescott: 40-24 | Dalton: 20-35-1), completion percentage (Prescott: 65.8% | Dalton: 61.5%), TD percentage (Prescott: 4.7% | Dalton: 4.1%), interception percentage (Prescott: 1.7% | Dalton: 2.3%), yards per attempt (Prescott: 7.6 | Dalton: 7.0) and passer rating (Prescott: 97.0 | Dalton: 86.4).
All that is just a long way of illustrating that Prescott is the superior QB even without factoring in running ability, which is a facet of the offense the Cowboys would lose completely if Prescott had to miss extended time.
While Dalton is good enough to keep win a few games in Prescott’s absence, if the Cowboys’ goal is to make a deep run in the playoffs and possibly win a Super Bowl, then Prescott is the one player on the team the Cowboys cannot afford to lose for any extended period of time.
Much like Teddy Bridgewater with the New Orleans Saints last year, Dalton can keep the Cowboys playoffs hopes alive if forced into action, but if the Cowboys want to make a real Super Bowl run, Prescott has to be the man under center.
Tyron Smith
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If you’ve been following the Cowboys for any amount of time, you know how much they’ve struggled to replace Tyron Smith when hurt. Last year, the Cowboys lost both games of consequence (excluding Week 17 because Dallas was already out of the playoffs) when Smith was out due to injury — Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers (34-24) and Week 6 against the New York Jets (24-22).
Moreover, no one needs to be reminded of the Chaz Green fiasco that occurred in Smith’s absence against the Atlanta Falcons in 2017, when Adrian Clayborn turned into Khalil Mack on his way to a career-high six sacks. Interestingly enough, in the two seasons since 2017, Clayborn has accumulated just 6.5 sacks — 0.5 more than he accumulated in one game opposite Green.
Nevertheless, it would be unfair to skip out on 2018, where the Cowboys won each game that Smith missed; however, it should be noted that despite winning each contest, the Cowboys offense struggled in the areas where Smith contributes most - the run game and pass protection:
| Statistic | With Tyron Smith | Without Tyron Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total snaps | 933 | 215 |
| Run success rate | 48.2% | 39.2% |
| Explosive run rate | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Yards per carry | 4.68 | 3.26 |
| Sack percentage | 8.1% | 12.7% |
Unfortunately, the Cowboys haven’t done much to fix the problem. In fact, the Cowboys are arguably less prepared to do without Smith this year than in previous years.
Earlier during the offseason, we discussed why the backup swing tackle position is one of the biggest weaknesses on the Cowboys roster. The Cowboys signed Cameron Erving to replace Cameron Fleming, which did save cap space but likely downgraded the position as well. Erving proved with the Chiefs last year that he can’t be trusted as a starting tackle. The Chiefs, who were clearly one of the best teams in football, were barely above .500 with Erving starting (6-4) but went undefeated when he didn’t (10-0).
Additionally, Erving is liable to lose a game if relied upon. Against the Colts in 2019, Erving gave up eight total pressures and two sacks, which made it difficult for Kansas City to get much going on offense, as they lost 19-13.
It seems like the Cowboys are hoping that Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore can do a better job scheming around Smith’s absence in the future than the Cowboys have in the past, and they better be right because if Smith goes down for an extended period of time, it could spell disaster for the Cowboys. And honestly, the same could probably be said about La’el Collins, who was one of the best right tackles in football last year, as the Cowboys don’t really have a viable backup for him either.
DeMarcus Lawrence
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The Cowboys did a great job improving on the edge this year, as the additions of Everson Griffen, Aldon Smith and Bradlee Anae improve the talent and depth of the unit compared to last year.
Having said that, the Cowboys defense still can’t afford to lose its best pass rusher and run defender — DeMarcus Lawrence, who is one of the best all-around defensive ends in the entire NFL.
Even with Griffen in the fold, Lawrence is the Cowboys’ best pass-rusher, and his absence would enable opposing offenses to key in on Griffen, who has never had to deal with many double teams due to Mike Zimmer’s scheme and Danielle Hunter lining up opposite him, especially with Gerald McCoy already out of the fold.
This would force the Cowboys to have to rely on Aldon Smith to be the team’s No. 2 pass rusher, and while everyone is encouraged about the reports about Smith coming out of Cowboys camp, it’s not wise to rely on someone who’s been out of football for the last half-decade to be a top-two pass rusher — anything Smith provides should be the cherry on top of the Cowboys’ pass rush sundae, not one of the main ingredients.
Devoid of top-tier defensive backs, the Cowboys were going to heavily rely on their pass rush to make up the difference against opposing passing offenses. However, if Lawrence is out for an extended period of time, Dallas wouldn’t have enough pass-rushers who could win one-on-one to make up the difference.
Additionally, the Cowboys would be missing their best run defender, which could have a major impact on the Cowboys overall run defense. In 2019, the Cowboys defense’s run success rate jumped from 46.2% with Lawrence on the field to 50.3% with him off it while yards per carry allowed jumped from 3.63 to 4.68.
Luckily for the Cowboys, Lawrence has proven to be an incredibly tough player who can play through myriad injuries; however, if he’s forced to miss extended time, then the Cowboys defense will be in serious trouble.
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August 21, 2020 at 09:03PM
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