The NCAA Tournament bubble is an arbitrary, nebulous distinction that encompasses dozens of hopeful college basketball teams, some more deserving that others.
But just over seven weeks from Selection Sunday, San Diego State really, truly, absolutely, positively sits smack on the bubble.
The two leading bracketologists are Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports. Lunardi, in his projected field of 68 issued Tuesday, had the Aztecs as the first team out. Palm had them as the penultimate team in.
Doesn’t get much clearer, or fuzzier, than that.
“After the last loss,” senior Jordan Schakel said of the 0-2 trip to Utah State last week, “it’s kind of can’t-lose in my mind. I mean, we never want to lose. But after that one, it’s kind of can’t-lose from here on out. We don’t have that many games left in the season. We just have to finish the season strong to get where we want to go.”
The good news is the next 10 games, starting at Air Force today with a new tip time of 6 p.m. PST, are against the Mountain West’s bottom five teams.
The bad news is the next 10 games are against the Mountain West’s bottom five teams.
“Landmines,” coach Brian Dutcher calls them. “Their metrics are low. Obviously, if we win, we could still drop. If we lose, it could be disastrous.”
The Aztecs (9-4, 3-3) currently sit at 48th in the NCAA’s NET, the computer metric the selection committee uses to sort and seed teams. They’re 42nd in Kenpom, 38th in ESPN’s BPI, 33rd in Sagarin.
What’s keeping them afloat, keeping them in the conversation for an at-large tournament berth, despite a .500 conference record, is their schedule, which has featured no teams ranked outside the top 150 in Kenpom. The Aztecs are 8-4 in them.
Compare that to 13-1 Boise State, which has played only two games against the top 150 and gone 1-1. The Broncos’ other 12 wins are against 182, 183, 198 (twice), 223, 257 (twice), 293 (twice), 330 (twice) and NAIA College of Idaho.
Now it’s SDSU’s turn to tour the Mountain West’s bottom five, which is 1-24 against the top five. There’s a second game at 293 Air Force on Sunday night (7 p.m. PST, Fox Sports 1); two at home against 198 Wyoming, two against 257 New Mexico, most likely in Lubbock, Texas; two at home against 330 San Jose State; and two at 182 Fresno State.
The final regular-season series, and moment of truth, comes Feb. 25 and 27 at Viejas Arena against Boise State.
“Everybody’s talking about the next 10,” grad transfer Terrell Gomez said. “I’m looking at the next 12. I know what it’s like now to put on this San Diego State uniform … I’m looking at the next 12 games like, you know, we’ve got to win. I think it’s very possible, but it’s gonna be a grind.”
He’s got that right. Of the 10, the two most challenging — or at least unique — are at Air Force. You’ve got the 7,081 feet of elevation, the Princeton offense, statistically the third slowest tempo in the nation, a funky matchup zone that the Aztecs haven’t seen since the last time they played the Falcons, a starting forward (Matt Mitchell) who can’t play with a knee injury and a starting center (Nathan Mensah) who regularly suffers from altitude sickness, and an empty Clune Arena — meaning you’ll really be able to hear the whistles now from the adjacent hockey rink.
“I want to start by saying,” Dutcher opened his virtual news conference Wednesday, “I think the Air Force Academy is a great place to go to play a game. The city of Colorado Springs is magnificent. But I’ve never enjoyed going to Air Force one time to play … and, as a treat, I get to do it twice.
“We’re going to Air Force. It’s going to be like going to the dentist. But we know we have to do it, so we’ll be ready to go.”
The Falcons (4-8, 2-6) have a Kenpom rating of 293 and NET of 261. Lose either game, and Dutcher doesn’t want to think about what it would do to his team’s NCAA Tournament résumé.
But even winning sometimes isn’t good enough. If the Aztecs merely scrape by over the next 10 games, their metrics likely will experience a slow slide. Drop, say, two spots per game, and suddenly your NET of 48 is 68.
Because modern metrics include statistical data from the games instead of mere wins, losses and location like the antiquated RPI, how you win is often as important as if you win. The computer doesn’t know the difference between a basket in a 30-point rout or a nail-biter. Statistical dominance can help offset the hit to your strength of schedule.
“We always have to keep our foot on the pedal,” Schakel said. “But yeah, I mean I guess that would give us more incentive just to keep our foot on the gas at all times.”
It’s a different mental approach than the season’s first 12 Div. I games, all against capable opponents. Wins were welcome, and not automatic.
Now wins are expected, automatic or not. Now it’s can’t-lose.
“Well, it adds pressure, obviously,” Dutcher said. “I want them confident, I want them to play aggressively. Sometimes pressure is a good thing. Some people respond well to pressure. We’ve (also) seen throughout the course of sports, some people don’t respond well to pressure. So, the pressure will be there, and how we respond will play a large part as to what kind of season we end up having.”
SDSU at Air Force
Friday: 6 p.m. PST (changed from the original 8 p.m. PST), Clune Arena, Air Force Academy
On the air: FS1; 1360-AM, 101.5-FM
Records: SDSU is 9-4, 3-3; Air Force is 4-8, 2-6
Series history: SDSU leads 59-24, including wins in 12 of the last 14. The Aztecs won both games last season, 89-74 at Air Force and 73-60 in the conference tournament in Las Vegas.
Aztecs update: They had less than 40 hours before last Saturday’s game at Utah State to retool the offense without injured Matt Mitchell, out two weeks with a hyperextended right knee. Now they have nearly a week and all sorts of options on the table, including changes to the starting lineup. The Aztecs could go big with 6-9 Joshua Tomaic and 6-10 Nathan Mensah together, or small by inserting 5-8 Terrell Gomez or 6-2 freshman Lamont Butler after his breakout game Saturday (13 points, five steals). Or stick with a mid-sized lineup where 6-6 Aguek Arop slots in for Mitchell, as he did Saturday. One concern is the effectiveness of Mensah, who has a history of altitude sickness and struggled at Utah State at just 4,770 feet (Air Force is 7,081). The other variable is the Falcons like to play a matchup zone, and the Aztecs haven’t seen any form of zone all season. The consecutive losses at Utah State were the first in 48 games. They have gone 96 games without losing three straight. After playing in front of 1,600 fans at Utah State last week, the Aztecs return to an empty gym at Air Force. The tip time was moved up two hours after Fox Sports 1 had an earlier game canceled and wanted to fill the time slot.
Falcons update: The bottom five of the Mountain West is 1-24 against the top five, but the lone win belongs to Air Force (68-66 at Nevada). Joe Scott returns as head coach 17 years after leading the Falcons to a Mountain West title and the NCAA Tournament. He still runs the Princeton offense but with some modern tweaks. One thing that hasn’t changed is the tempo, which is slooooow and ranks 355th out of 357 Div. I programs (only Evansville and Virginia average fewer possessions). They don’t rebound particularly well with an undersized roster and struggle to stop teams inside. One interesting statistical matchup: Air Force is allowing opponents to shoot 56.3 percent on 2-point attempts (327th nationally), and SDSU is making only 47.9 percent of its 2-point attempts (232nd nationally). The Falcons rank last in the Mountain West in scoring (58.9 points) and turnovers (15.1). G A.J. Walker, the only returning starter, is the primary offensive threat (13.9 points, 39.1 percent behind the arc). The only other double-figure scorer is G Chris Joyce (12.3 points).
Next up: at Air Force on Sunday (7 p.m. PST, FS1)
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Aztecs basketball begins 'can't-lose' segment of schedule at Air Force - The San Diego Union-Tribune
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