The countdown to Christmas is on, and with it comes the perennial question: Will Portland get snow?
Sure, the actual holiday is 10 days away, too far out to get an accurate forecast, but Christmas this year is on a weekend, so what about the week before, when kids are out of school and adults are not? Could Portland get snow then?
“There’s a lot that we don’t know yet,” said Jon Bonk meteorologist with National Weather Service in Portland, for the days leading into the Christmas weekend, “and of the numerous weather model solutions, there are two main modes that we’re seeing, and unfortunately they’re completely opposite.”
One of the models, he said, shows relatively warm temperatures for Portlanders, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The other shows cold air and precipitation, the kind that could result in freezing rain or even snowflakes.
Right now, Bonk said, two-thirds of the models are showing the warmer scenario, while one-third are showing the cold, maybe snow one.
“It’s also worth noting that we are on the extreme edge of what I consider our forecast skill range,” Bonk said.
“At this point, do not take your phone’s weather app as gospel and verbatim,” he said. “It is only showing one possible solution out of more than 100 possible solutions. We often see the forecast dramatically change.”
What meteorologists do know with a little more certainty, Bonk said is that Thursday night and into Friday night Portland will see colder air coming through the Columbia Gorge with breezy conditions that could bring wind chill into the teens.
Bonk noted that while wind chill is geared towards humans, pets will feel it too, so be aware that conditions could be dangerous for pets outside overnight.
Will that cold air bring snow earlier next week?
“There was some talk about snow coming Monday morning and Tuesday morning,” Bonk said, “and at least our latest data shows that the snow level continues to rise.”
So, he said, it’s unlikely lower Portland elevations will see any snow, but higher places could get a dusting.
With all of this, Bonk reiterated, “Fully expect for the forecast to change in one direction or the other as we get closer.”
And, we asked him, would it be delusional to hope for snow on Christmas? No, he said. Not yet.
— Lizzy Acker
503-221-8052; lacker@oregonian.com; @lizzzyacker
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