President Biden would handily defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Electoral College — but lose to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to a new analysis of national and state polling.
According to WPA intelligence, which examined seven national popular vote polls since mid-February, the 76-year-old Trump would lose to Biden by an average of 3.1%, while DeSantis, 44, would win the popular vote over the incumbent by an average of 1.2%
The survey also showed DeSantis leading Biden in five of six likely 2024 battleground states — Arizona (48%-42%), Michigan (45%-43%), Nevada (44%-41%), North Carolina (44%-41%) and Pennsylvania (45%-42%).
In a sixth battleground state, Wisconsin, DeSantis and Biden are in a dead heat with 45% support each.
In all six states, the survey found, Trump trails Biden by between one and four percentage points.
“Based on current polling, if the election were held today and Trump was the Republican nominee, Trump would lose to Joe Biden, 319 Electoral College votes to 219 Electoral College votes,” WPAi founder and CEO Chris Wilson wrote in a memo accompanying the survey.
“Biden would receive the highest number of Electoral College votes a winner has received since Barack Obama (332 votes) defeated Mitt Romney (206 votes) in 2012,” Wilson added. “Comparatively, based on current polling, DeSantis would defeat Biden and win the White House with at least 286 Electoral College votes, or 296 if he carried the toss-up state of Wisconsin.”
In 2020, Biden denied Trump’s bid for a second term by winning 306 Electoral College votes compared to 232 for Trump. A candidate must achieve 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
The 80-year-old president announced Tuesday that he and Vice President Kamala Harris will seek re-election in 2024, despite low approval numbers for their administration.
DeSantis is meeting this week with foreign leaders in Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Israel, before returning to Florida to mark the end of the legislature’s session on May 5. He is expected to announce his entry into the Republican race shortly after.
In the most recent poll surveyed by WPAi, Trump-aligned pollster Fabrizio Lee revealed DeSantis up three percentage points and Trump down three percentage points in head-to-head popular vote matchups against Biden.
“Not only would a Trump nomination hand Biden the White House (again), it would also have catastrophic down ballot effects on GOP candidates at all levels,” the polling firm concluded, highlighting previous down-ballot losses for Republicans where Trump played a pivotal role in the races.
According to one estimate cited by the researchers, Trump endorsements cost Republicans 11 House seats and four Senate seats in 2018, when the GOP lost the House after eight years in the majority.
In 2022, the firm suggested, Trump cost Republicans Senate seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
“Biden’s best hope for reelection,” Wilson wrote, “is the nomination of Donald Trump, the man
Biden beat in 2020 and would beat again in 2024.”
WPA intelligence was behind analytics work for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s successful 2021 campaign, which earned Wilson and Principal Amanda Iovino the Pollster of the Year award.
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