Panic for Democrats as new poll shows Biden would LOSE to Trump if a third party candidate enters 2024 race
- A third-party option could lead to a tie or Trump win
- The Data for Progress poll shows voters support a third-option
- Democrats are worried No Labels could run a third-party candidate that would cause Joe Biden to lose re-election
A new poll showed a third party candidate would siphon enough votes off Joe Biden to elect Donald Trump the next president of the United States should that scenario come to pass in the 2024 election.
The numbers are stoking Democratic fears of a spoiler effect as polls continue to show voters would prefer another option to Biden.
The nonpartisan group No Labels is looking at running a third-party candidate should Biden and Trump be their respective parties' nominee. Biden is expected to easily win the Democratic nomination and Trump, even with his legal issues, leads in polls on the GOP race.
The survey from Data for Progress, released on Wednesday, showed that a third-party candidate from No Labels would do enough damage to Biden to bring about a Trump victory.
The poll tested voter support for Larry Hogan, the former moderate Republican governor of Maryland who has been mentioned as contender for the No Labels ticket.
When polled head to head, Biden leads Trump 47 to 45 percent among likely voters, with a 6-point advantage among Independent voters.
When Hogan is offered as a third option, he polls at 6 percent but his inclusion narrows the race between Biden and Trump to a tie.
Data for Progress also polled a hypothetical 'moderate Independent candidate' in a general election against Biden and Trump. That candidate receives support from 13 percent of voters but siphon more votes away from Biden — delivering Trump a slim victory.
'Our polling makes clear that a No Labels candidate would almost surely spoil the election in favor of Trump and hand our country over to right-wing extremism,' said Danielle Deiseroth, Executive Director at Data for Progress.
Conducted from May 25 to June 5 the survey of 1,625 likely voters nationally had a margin of error is +/-2 percentage points.
Other polling throughout the past few months has shown neither party is excited about having Biden or Trump as their nominee.
And No Labels argues it's too far out from election day to know what role a third-party candidate would play.
'We're sitting here 17 months away from the election. And so everybody can speculate about how this kind of ticket would or wouldn't impact the race,' said Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels, said in a statement.
'There's only one thing we all know, and we could all agree. Almost nobody wants the election both major parties seem intent on giving us,' he noted.
No Labels is a group that promotes centrist, bi-partisan policies and politics.
Their search for an alternative comes as polls show only about half of Democrats think Biden should run again. And the president is also facing declining support from two major voting blocs - black and Latino voters - that helped him win in 2020.
Some Democrats have expressed concern about his age - at 80 he is the oldest president in American history. He also has seen his approval rating drop to a low of 37%.
And Democrats have been visibly worried about talk that No Labels, which is attempting to get on the ballot in all 50 states, will run an alternative candidate that would cause Biden to lose.
So far, the group has made the ballot in four: Arizona, Colorado, Alaska and Oregon.
Along with Hogan, moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has been mentioned as an option.
Both Manchin and Hogan told The Washington Post earlier this year that they weren't ruling out being on a No Labels ticket, if it comes to fruition.
'If enough Americans believe there is an option and the option is a threat to the extreme left and extreme right, it will be the greatest contribution to democracy, I believe,' Manchin said. And as to being on the ticket: 'I don't rule myself in and I don't rule myself out.'
'I think it is really important to have that option. Because we have never been at the point we are today in America,' Hogan noted. 'The vast majority of people in America are not happy with the direction of the country and they don't want to see either Joe Biden or Donald Trump as president.'
No Labels reportedly has a $70 million war chest its willing to invest in its presidential efforts.
Earlier this month, top Democratic strategists, including some Biden campaign advisers, met with former Republicans who oppose Donald Trump.
Their goal, according to the Washington Post, was to subvert a potential third-party presidential bid by the group No Labels, fearing it would cause Biden to lose and put Trump in the White House.
But, besides the threat of a third-party effort, Biden is also facing a revolt of support among some of Democrats most-reliable support groups: blacks and Hispanics.
It was black voters in South Carolina who helped make him the Democratic nominee after they gave him a massive win in the primary contest.
But, besides appointing Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court - a fact he featured in his announcement video for a second term - Biden has failed in other items important to African Americans, including protecting voting rights from GOP-led restrictions and enacting police reform.
In an AP-NORC poll conducted a week before Biden´s announcement, only 55 percent of black adults said they are likely to support him in the general election. Among Latinos, only 27 percent want Biden to run again in 2024 and only 43 percent said they would definitely or probably support him.
The campaign seems aware of its shaking ground with minority voters. Biden has hired hispanic campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who is the granddaughter of legendary labor leader Cesar Chavez, and he's hired a black deputy campaign manager: Quentin Fulks.
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June 23, 2023 at 12:31AM
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Poll shows Biden would lose to Trump if a third party candidate runs - Daily Mail
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