A Fox News contributor predicted that Donald Trump will lose the 2024 election because of the significant number of Republican voters who backed Nikki Haley.
Marc Thiessen, the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, said that the results of the GOP primaries suggest that the former president will lose to President Joe Biden in November if he cannot sweep up the voters who backed Haley.
"Nikki Haley won 2.9 million votes in the primary so far. Our Fox News voter analysis shows that somewhere between five in 10 and six in 10 of those Nikki Haley voters said they won't vote for Trump in November," Thiessen said.
"If even a fraction of those voters deliver on that promise and stay home or vote third party or just split their votes or something, Trump loses."
The Context
It was confirmed Trump will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee on Tuesday after resounding victories in the Georgia, Washington and Mississippi state primaries.
Despite dropping out of the race following Super Tuesday, Haley, Trump's last remaining serious challenger in the GOP primary, still managed to receive more than 77,000 votes (13 percent) in the key swing state of Georgia.
While many of the ballots for the former U.N. ambassador could have been sent prior to her dropping out the race, others said the results were the latest sign that Trump is struggling to unite Republican voters beyond his MAGA base.
What We Know
Trump and Biden are set for a rematch of the 2020 election in November after they both clinched the respective Republican and Democratic presidential nominations on Tuesday.
While Trump dominated the GOP primary as expected, Haley still managed to win Vermont and Washington, D.C. before pulling out of the race. During Super Tuesday, Haley also managed to receive between 20 and 40 percent of the votes in several states—including Massachusetts (37 percent), Colorado (33 percent), and Minnesota (29 percent).
In February, a Fox News voter analysis of Haley's home state of South Carolina revealed that 59 percent of Haley voters say they would not support Trump in the general election if he were the nominee. In New Hampshire, more than three-quarters (77 percent) of Haley voters said they would not back Trump in November if he is the GOP candidate.
Speaking to Fox News, Thiessen suggested that Biden is the "most vulnerable incumbent president in modern American history" but Trump cannot rely on this to ensure he beats the incumbent in November.
Thiessen noted how Trump lost Georgia in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, with the 77,000 votes Haley received in the state's primary on Tuesday potentially deciding who wins the key swing state in November, and the race overall.
"The Haley voters are the swing voters of the 2024 election," Thiessen said. "Trump has to win them over, he has to pivot now to the general election and focus on uniting the party and the non-MAGA part of the GOP.
"What Trump needs to understand is that MAGA voters are not going to decide this election."
Trump's office has been contacted for comment via email.
Views
In a video on social media following his primary wins on Tuesday, Trump said: "It's your favorite president, speaking to you on a really great day of victory.
"One week ago, we had something called Super Tuesday and it was indeed super, because we won at numbers that nobody has ever seen before, records in virtually every state. And tonight, likewise, but this one got us over the top."
Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in South Carolina, previously told Newsweek that Haley's supporters will not behave in a "monolithic" way, but could be divided into three groups: Those who will move to Trump to stop Biden's reelection, the "Never Trump" crowd, and those who will choose not to vote in November or back an Independent candidate in protest.
What's Next
The Republican National Convention, where Trump will be confirmed as the 2024 nominee, will take place in Milwaukee in July.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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March 14, 2024 at 02:30PM
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