NFL free agency is nearly here, and while most fans view it as an opportunity for their team to upgrade, the reality is that not every team can improve in the second week of March.
The messaging from general managers and head coaches at last week’s combine was very consistent and predictable: Change is coming to our roster, we will have a plan, etc.
All teams are planning proactively to fill their holes. But they are also planning a defensive strategy to prevent others from raiding their cupboards. That’s what makes the jobs of these NFL decision-makers so challenging. Front offices must prepare multiple game plans for roster building and be ready to pivot on a dime to minimize damage.
I see four teams in particular who have plenty to lose when the tampering window opens Monday at noon ET.
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NFL free-agent rankings: Brian Burns, Saquon Barkley, Kirk Cousins lead the top 150
“It’s been true forever: You win in the trenches first,” coach John Harbaugh said during the combine. “We think we’re offensive line-centric in our philosophy, and we’ve got some question marks in our offensive line.”
I love his acknowledgment of the truth.
The Ravens make no bones about it: This is their bread and butter. Offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris is one of the best in the business. His calm demeanor and poise carry over to his players. The coach and his center, Pro Bowler Tyler Linderbaum, are the glue and the communicators who drive the efficiency upfront.
Nonetheless, both of the Ravens’ starting guards are heading toward free agency, and the left tackle position was fluid throughout 2023, which would keep me from sleeping well if I were GM Eric DeCosta. Left guard John Simpson ranked 28th on my top 150 free agents. Right guard Kevin Zeitler, who ranked 44th, turns 34 on Friday but is still playing well. The Ravens, who tend to let players walk for compensatory picks, likely can’t keep both.
Meanwhile, left tackle Ronnie Stanley turns 30 this month, carries a $26.2 million cap hit in 2024 (second-highest on the team) and has missed tons of time due to injury, prompting the team to use a rotation in several games in 2023. Can they count on him moving forward? And if not, how do they replace him?
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Rebuilding O-line a must for Ravens' decision-makers: 'You win in the trenches first'
I’d guess that one of those problems can be solved in the draft. And going young on the offensive line can be great … in Year 2 or 3. But that rookie season will be an adventure. And that’s only part of the problem.
Needing to find two or three starting offensive linemen in one offseason is asking for trouble. Filling those spots on paper is much easier than getting that group to jell and play as one by Labor Day. It’s a unit that must work in unison and build trust, which takes time. Because of that, if my offensive line has been effective, I’d always want to minimize change. I might even overpay somebody for continuity, even if that means bypassing a slightly better option, as long as it’s not outrageously more expensive.
Elsewhere on offense, the Ravens’ free agents include their best running back in Gus Edwards (along with JK Dobbins and Dalvin Cook) and explosive wideout Odell Beckham Jr., plus other various depth pieces. Losing all of those players would be problematic.
Combine that with what has already happened to last year’s league-best defense, and they might not be able to plug all the holes in the dam. The Ravens have already lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald (who became Seattle’s head coach), plus two assistants to D-coordinator jobs (Anthony Weaver to the Dolphins, Dennard Wilson to the Titans). That will be enough to overcome, even if they can minimize roster change, which seems unlikely.
Franchise-tagging defensive tackle Justin Madubuike might stop the bleeding temporarily, but the Ravens could lose their top two edge players (Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy), a Pro Bowl linebacker (Patrick Queen), a starting safety who was second in the NFL with seven interceptions (Geno Stone) and a couple of role players. In total (and not including Madubuike), Baltimore has 10 free agents in my top 150, including eight in the top 75. That has to make every Ravens fan uneasy.
Another factor is how many ex-Ravens staffers could be interested suitors elsewhere. Longtime Baltimore personnel man Joe Hortiz is now the Chargers’ GM. My guess is he will target several of “his guys” to come west to Los Angeles and play for the younger Harbaugh brother, Jim. The same could be true of Macdonald in Seattle, Weaver in Miami and Wilson in Tennessee.
No roster will be under greater assault next week than the Ravens’. They are going to have their hands full defending the fort.
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Ravens have decisions to make on Kevin Zeitler, Geno Stone and several key contributors
The Vikings are in a stare-down with themselves: Try to be competitive now or launch a full-fledged rebuild? Few can do both at the same time, and at minimum, riding the fence is a very fine line. We should learn soon which way the decision-makers are leaning. Minnesota has several core players who will be free agents, the losing of which would directly affect the results in 2024.
It all starts quarterback. Every player who is considering signing or re-signing with any team wants to know who the quarterback will be. If Kirk Cousins leaves, it would immediately raise a red flag for other players, unless an alternative plan becomes evident quickly. Players know the quarterback has a direct effect on their livelihoods, and if Cousins departs without a clear answer, that would create uncertainty for everyone else.
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And that’s just the start. The Vikings need talent, and it might cost a pretty penny to retain the few quality players they have. Both of their best pass rushers — Danielle Hunter, who I ranked as the second-best player available, and D.J. Wonnum — are free agents. So is their best off-ball linebacker (Jordan Hicks), even though he’ll turn 32 this summer, and talented but oft-injured edge player Marcus Davenport.
In addition to Cousins on offense, starting guard Dalton Risner and third wideout K.J. Osborn are also set to hit the market. If they’re both allowed to walk, that’s a lot of change for one team.
Losing one or two of these contributors probably has to be expected, and that would be a normal amount of departures in a given year. But if the bulk of them walk out the door, it could set this team back further. That’s a risk that can be minimized only by the Vikings’ willingness to adjust their budget to keep the best of this group.
Led by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings are a cap-oriented, analytically inclined front office. My worry is that they might draw a line in the sand and not be willing to budge when determining the market value for some of their own. If they don’t budge, they might have a hard time replacing these guys. Because of the learning curve as players adapt to a new scheme, it’s not always realistic to simply plug and play replacements without taking a step back.
Beyond Minnesota’s players with expiring contracts, I struggled to understand the release of running back Alexander Mattison. His cap number of $4.6 million didn’t seem exorbitant, especially given the Vikings don’t have any large salaries at the position. I noted last summer that Dalvin Cook’s release was made easier because of Mattison’s presence, not to mention having fellow RB Ty Chandler — who jumped out at me on preseason film — in the bullpen.
Apparently, Chandler didn’t jump out to Vikings brass, because they traded for Cam Akers (who is now a free agent himself) in September. But by season’s end, Chandler had proven himself enough to, at least in the Vikings’ eyes, make Mattison dispensable? My head is spinning from all the recalculating. As a whole, this winding path has turned a roster strength into a weakness, and that’s a concern for the process of future decisions.
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Vikings at the NFL Scouting Combine: What we're hearing about their offseason plans
The Commanders are a bit different from the other teams on this list, as they have a lot to lose and a lot to gain, with a new regime of unproven evaluators — first-time GM Adam Peters and new head coach Dan Quinn — entering a high-leverage situation. If they evaluate properly, their path to relevancy is clear and unobstructed. If they don’t, their trove of assets will be wasted.
The Commanders have 20 or so unrestricted or restricted free agents who made some sort of impact in 2023. They also have almost $100 million in cap space (most in the league) and the No. 2 pick in a quarterback-rich draft. New ownership has, understandably, raised expectations and excitement inside the Beltway.
All of the attention will be on the QB decision, and rightly so. How will they rate the quarterbacks after USC’s Caleb Williams (who I think is a slam dunk to go first to the Chicago Bears)? Depending on who you ask, evaluators differ on the next three, between LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. All that matters is whom Washington likes best, and I would not be shocked if it’s any of those three.
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NFL execs mock top 10: Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye? Marvin Harrison Jr. outside top 5?
🎙️Let's talk Commanders:
* @nickbaumgardner on Maye vs. Daniels, Adam Peters' lessons from Trey Lance trade, pass rushers
* @ProFootballTalk on Caleb Williams; Josh Harris sitting in meetings
* Me on targeted FA $pending, options at 2, Leno/Thomashttps://t.co/3NKoRvtnWl
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) March 5, 2024
But before the draft arrives, the Commanders must evaluate their own. This was a poorly built team whose coaching staff and schemes were often questioned. That puts more pressure on Peters and Quinn to determine who was being used or coached improperly (and therefore might be undervalued), and who is not worth retaining.
Of their pending free agents, I would keep it simple and prioritize keeping big guys and fast guys. Those skill sets will be valued by other teams. This means wideout Curtis Samuel and maybe even the speedy Byron Pringle. I would also monitor and try to retain offensive linemen like inconsistent but talented guard Saahdiq Charles, and anyone who can rush the passer.
The plan probably shouldn’t include overpaying to keep a safety or off-ball linebacker. These can be hard choices, especially when you have so much cap space available, but it will disappear fast if you are not disciplined. Will Peters be disciplined enough to let some guys — whom the media or prior coaching staff might have valued — walk because they don’t play premium positions?
I’d guess the Commanders’ transaction page will outpace that of any other team in the league, with as many as 35 or 38 newcomers on the 53-man roster. If Peters and Quinn play their cards right, the team could be completely remade over the next couple of months and become a factor in 2024, justifying the excitement level and fulfilling expectations. If they don’t, it could create problems that take years to fix. Get your popcorn.
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Commanders enter free agency with much to ponder: What's the plan for Sam Howell?
The Dolphins face a critical window that might make or break them.
As of Wednesday, they sat $18.8 million over the salary cap, per Over the Cap, even after releasing cornerback Xavien Howard, linebacker Jerome Baker and edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah. They need to reallocate to spread the wealth elsewhere and fill multiple roster holes. That’s easier said than done.
I can’t see any reason to go big-game hunting or commit to an outlandish contract that typically comes with the first week of free agency. But it’s challenging to be patient and cautious when you’re itching to make your team better.
They have several key free agents, led by defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, whom they did not tag before Tuesday’s deadline (his tender would have cost $22.1 million). All three of their interior starting offensive linemen are free, led by right guard Robert Hunt. So is edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who filled in nicely for injured starters Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb before suffering his own injury late last season.
All of those players should be attractive to other teams, which could lead the Dolphins to play the compensatory pick game, with one eye on the future and a selective approach to fill their holes. They could collect a few draft picks in 2025 if these players leave South Florida for market-value deals elsewhere, but only if they don’t sign UFAs who would cancel those deals out. Because of this, Miami will probably target cap cuts and non-qualifying players.
With little cap space to use, GM Chris Grier will be challenged with filling holes through the draft. To do that effectively, though, and to protect the integrity of his board instead of drafting to fill out a depth chart, the Dolphins have to check some boxes before draft day. This would give them the flexibility to draft the best player available instead of having to fill needs by reaching, which usually proves to be problematic.
Complicating the Dolphins’ path is their apparent intent to pay quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on a long-term deal. I might prefer to wait another year, but Grier and coach Mike McDaniel have indicated an extension is a priority this offseason. A long-term deal now would have benefits: The Dolphins could reduce Tagovailoa’s $23.2 million cap hit in 2024, opening up space to use elsewhere, and they would have cost certainty to plan around in future years. However, paying Tagovailoa at the top of the market could be risky, straining the cap further in 2025 and beyond.
(Top photos of, from left, Christian Wilkins, Patrick Queen and Danielle Hunter: Megan Briggs, Patrick Smith, Michael Owens / Getty Images)
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Which NFL teams have the most to lose in free agency? Why the Ravens and others are at risk - The Athletic
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