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Twin Cities suburbs continue to grow while rural western counties lose population • Minnesota Reformer - Minnesota Reformer

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Dozens of Minnesota counties, including Hennepin, Ramsey and much of the rural western part of the state, shrunk in population between 2020 and 2023, according to data released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.

But dozens more have grown, with the highest rates seen in the outer ring Twin Cities suburbs and parts of Minnesota’s lake country.

Percentage-wise the steepest loss occurred in rural Traverse County on the South Dakota border, where the population has shrunk by 218 people, or 6.5%.

Ramsey County’s decline of 2.8% — or more than 15,000 people — also stands out as one of the steepest in the state. Hennepin County lost 22,936 people, or 1.8%.

On the flip side, Wright County, on the western edge of the Twin Cities metro, has grown by 6.5% since 2020. Nearby Sherburne, Isanti and Pine Counties also posted population gains of more than 4%. 

All told, most of the state’s biggest counties are getting bigger, while most of the smallest are losing population. Of the 25 most populous counties in the state, just two have lost population since 2020. Among the 25 smallest, on the other hand, just six have gained.

Breaking down the components of population change adds nuance to the picture. In Hennepin and Ramsey counties, for instance, new births are outpacing deaths. But that increase was offset by migration loss as families moved away during the pandemic.

In much of greater Minnesota, on the other hand, old residents are dying faster than new ones are being born. In Aitkin County, which contains part of Mille Lacs Lake, deaths have outnumbered births by more than 2-to-1 since 2020. But as in much of north-central Minnesota’s lake country, that decline is being offset by strong in-migration, much of it likely from the Twin Cities.

Minnesota’s counties can also be categorized according to how natural change (births and deaths) and migration are affecting the population. Most of the counties with both positive birth rates and migration growth are located on the periphery of the Twin Cities, for instance.

A smattering of counties in the southern tier of the state, including the Twin Cities’ core, show positive birth rates but negative migration. A large swath of northern counties show the opposite trend. And a considerable number of counties in the western half of the state are experiencing both negative birth rates and negative migration.

These demographic shifts undergird many of Minnesota’s biggest news stories of the past several years, from the shuttering of rural hospitals and delivery wards to the rise of the suburban battleground district to the economic struggles of downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul.

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Twin Cities suburbs continue to grow while rural western counties lose population • Minnesota Reformer - Minnesota Reformer
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