There's been a lot of handwringing on French television during the much publicised one-day strikes over pension reform because of a fear that protests will harm tourism and tarnish France's image.
There's little evidence though that strikes harm France's economy overall. France is not going to lose its crown as the most visited country in the world—it is the world's 7th largest economy and tourism accounts for 10% of GDP—and early evidence suggests that long-haul business is booming for May and June.
Where France's strikes do have an impact, however, is on individual travel plans—where the data so far for 2023 shows that 10 million passengers have already been affected by the unrest.
Visitor Figures To France Are Up 33% For 2023
The figures suggest that pent-up demand from the tail end of the pandemic has not dented the demand for Parisian getaways, despite pictures of rotting garbage on the streets or the threat of air traffic controller strikes.
Digital marketing platform Sojern is reporting that U.S. travelers are returning to Europe in large numbers, with American visitors to Paris up 33% compared to 2022 figures.
Trainline Europe has recently seen an uptick in bookings to Paris—it is currently the most popular destination for groups of three or more travelers and with London, it is the number one destination for solo travelers. Likewise, TripIt reports that perennial faves London, Paris and Rome are top long-haul destinations for Americans traveling in June.
As a result, travel app Hopper reports that airfare to Europe is already the highest it has been in the past 5 years, with trips to Europe currently averaging $1,167 per ticket for summer departures, 36% more expensive than last year or about $317 more per ticket.
The price hike is caused by a mixture of low capacity, higher jet fuel prices and surging demand—on Hopper, travelers are heading to London, Paris and Tokyo from the U.S.
Most Of France's Tourism Isn't Long-haul International
France is also protected by a large domestic tourist market. Only 30% of France's tourism comes from long-haul, international visitors—traditionally, the French love to holiday in their own country, taking advantage of its own mountains, cities, lakes and beaches, and many head to these places for the bulk of August when the country shuts down on a nationwide break. Many unions consider this period sacrosanct—they aren't looking to irritate hoteliers and restauranteurs or alienate angry holidaymakers who cannot reach their destinations.
There is some data to suggest that political unrest and action does lead to a reduced number of nights of bed occupancy, the metric by which tourist data is judged. During the pre-pandemic 'Yellow Vest' protests against social inequality in 2019, bed occupancy did fall but it's impossible to know if these visitors did actually cancel or simply rebooked for a later date.
INSEE (France's national statistics institute) analysed previous social protests and found that there was very little impact on economic growth. Plus, because a lot of strike action is tied up in the transport sector, INSEE predicts that the impact of this 2023 movement will be further limited because the pandemic has trained everyone to work online—meaning people can easily adapt to temporary disruptions to their transport behaviors.
Additionally, while France is known as being a country that loves to protest, the number of strike days is lower today than in the 1970s and in the past few summers, it is more likely that water shortages, fire risks and heatwaves might offer tourists a greater incentive to head elsewhere.
30% of daily European flights impacted by 2023 strikes
The real loser in the strikes is the individual traveler, many of whom have suffered real delays since the strikes began in January.
European air traffic control body Eurocontrol published data for the period between March 1 and April 9 when a staggering 10 million travelers were impacted by delays or cancellations, amounting to 64,000 passengers each day just in France. Usually, aircraft punctuality stands at almost 80% but during strike days, this decreased to around 70%.
It isn't just an issue for flights taking off and landing in France, as many flights pass through French airspace. So on any given day, up to 3,300 flights take off and land in French airports but another 3,700 pass across French airspace—and 16% of these have been affected by air traffic controller strikes (although this figure increases if it also includes flights cancelled more than 3 days before any planned strike action).
Ryanair, Air France and Easyjet are the three most delayed and cancelled airlines during this period. Ryanair, in particular, is petitioning the EU to protect overflights from the same refund and protection schemes as flights in France, as it argues that customers flying from the U.K. to Italy should not bear the brunt of French strikes when they haven't set foot in the country.
Whilst France has been the most affected by flight action, Spain also suffered 15% in delayed departures and a 63% increase in cancellations during the same time frame. The U.K., Italy and Germany suffered around 6 to 8% of flights delayed or cancelled, mostly overflights.
Across Europe, a total of 34 days of industrial action in EU countries has impacted 237,000 flights—as a comparison the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April 2010 impacted 100,000 flights.
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May 10, 2023 at 04:38PM
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Strikes Impact Tourism, But France Still Wins, Even If Travelers Lose - Forbes
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