Yoán Moncada strikes balance with strike zone, eyes stardom - Sox Machine

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Yoán Moncada has been on a tear over the last few weeks. Since the start of the month, he’s dominated the plate even without hitting the ball out of the park. He’s walking in 25 percent of his plate appearances and blistering the balls he puts in play to the tune of an average exit velocity of 95.1 mph. It’s led to five doubles, nine runs scored and nine RBIs over 11 games with nary a bad game in the bunch. The result is an obscenely OBP-heavy line during this stretch: .359/.519/.487 with a 193 wRC+.

It’s the kind of run Sox fans have been hoping to see from Moncada after a disappointing 2020. It’s also the kind of run that warrants closer inspection, because there are some reasons to believe we’re looking at more than just a hot streak.

At the time the White Sox acquired Moncada in the trade sending Chris Sale to the Red Sox, Moncada was considered by some to be the best prospect in baseball and a consensus top-five prospect in the minor league scouting world. But he was not without flaws. The scouting report said Yoán had a good eye and plus power, but his critics were concerned that his swing-and-miss tendencies would limit his impact. In 2021, we’re finally starting to see Yoán use his strengths to mitigate his weaknesses and, in the process, realize his prospect pedigree. 

His first partial season and first full season (2017-2018) were a mixed bag. His approach would probably best be described as passive. He showed a lot of restraint on pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%). He also took more a lot more strikes than average (Z-Swing%). Combined, Yoán swung less than 81 percent of the league (Swing%).

YOÁN MONCADA MLB FREQUENCY PERCENTILE RANK

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%
2017	30%	24%	19%
2018	13%	21%	15%

This is passive to the extreme, and the challenge with this approach is that Yoán has whiffing issues (SwStr%) in his game. So while he took plenty of walks (BB%), he put more pressure on his contact skills by taking strikes. This led to strikeouts (K%). A lot of strikeouts. Only a handful of players in the league struck out more frequently.

YOÁN MONCADA MLB FREQUENCY PERCENTILE RANK

Year	SwStr%	BB%	K%
2017	24%	85%	3%
2018	24%	67%	3%

At the end of the 2018 season, there was a lot of talk about Yoán’s passivity. It was clear that he had a good eye, but when one-third of plate appearances end in strikeouts, it’s an uphill battle to cram enough productivity into the remaining trips to be a plus hitter. And sure enough, Moncada sat right around league average at the plate (wRC+). His league-average-ish ISO (slugging minus batting average) and double-digit walk rate weren’t enough to combat a strikeout rate 50 percent above league average.

	Yoán Moncada		MLB Average
Year	BA/OBP/SLG	wRC+	BA/OBP/SLG	wRC+
2017	.231/.338/.412	105	.255/.324/.426	96
2018	.235/.315/.400	97	.248/.318/.409	97

In 2019, Moncada went on the offensive. He started swinging more, which led to fewer walks and fewer strikeouts. It also led to improved numbers as his power played up and we saw the kind of season that Sox fans were hoping for from a cornerstone of the rebuild. But under the surface, there was cause for concern. Moncada was swinging more, but his pitch selection was an issue. He was chasing. He swung at a few more strikes (Z-Swing%), but he offered at a lot more pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%). So while he made modest improvements in his strikeout rate, his walk rate plummeted. Basically, he went from a high-strikeout, high-walk guy to a high-strikeout, low-walk guy. Not ideal. 

YOÁN MONCADA MLB FREQUENCY PERCENTILE RANK

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	BB%	K%
2018	13%	21%	67%	2%
2019	39%	23%	29%	7%

Swinging at balls and not swinging at strikes is pretty much definitionally the opposite of what we call a “good eye.” And it’s not a good trend to see in a hitter who was lauded for his plate discipline as a prospect.

I don’t want to dwell on 2020 too much (full stop). Neither, I think, does Yoán. He basically went back to his pre-2019 behavior at the plate. The double-digit walk rate returned, but with it came another strikeout rate over 30 percent and the league-average production. And we were largely back where we started. In this context, 2019 looks like an aberration.

Year	BB%	K%	BA/OBP/SLG	wRC+
2017	12.6	32.0	.255/.324/.426	105
2018	10.3	33.4	.248/.318/.409	97
2019	7.2	27.5	.315/.367/.548	140
2020	12.1	31.2	.225/.320/.385	96

Enter 2021 and we finally have gotten the breakout we’ve been hoping for — and with the underlying stats to support its sustainability. Yoán’s plate discipline is outweighing his contact issues and it makes for a promising profile. His chase rate (O-Swing%) is good for 16th best in all of baseball, and this is a stat that keeps good company, with names like Trout, Bregman, Soto, Acuña and Guerrero (Jrs.). He’s also for the first time in his career offering at strikes at an above league-average rate. That’s right! He basically stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone while simultaneously swinging at more pitches in the zone. This is incredibly difficult to do and speaks to the elite talent Moncada has. It’s a level of plate discipline that has allowed him to swing and miss (SwStr%) at a better than average rate!

YOÁN MONCADA MLB FREQUENCY PERCENTILE RANK

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	SwStr%
2021	10%	62%	8%	54%

All of this drives an almost 40 percent better than league average production.

2021	BB%	K%	BA/OBP/SLG	wRC+
Moncada	15.7	26.7	.284/.407/.411	139
MLB Average	8.9	24.1	.236/.312/.393	97

And while his performance on balls in play might decline — and his batting average with it (xBA) — he’s likely to see some positive regression in his power numbers (xSLG), where he’s been a bit unlucky thus far this season. In fact, there’s a case to be made that his numbers will go up from here (xwOBA). Basically, the advanced metrics suggest this is legit.

Year	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
2021	.287	.276	.411	.477	.371	.387

All of which is to say that if Yoán Moncada maintains his newfound plate discipline, we have an elite hitter for years to come. And while I didn’t touch on his defense (it’s plus) or his baserunning (also plus), the total package adds up to the kind of player that’s a perennial All-Star and could put up some MVP-type seasons.

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